Sustainable development goal 3: is Ghana on track with neonatal mortality?

Despite progress in child health, deaths occurring in the neonatal period remain a major contributor to under-five mortality in Ghana, posing a significant public health challenge. SDG 3.2 aims to reduce neonatal mortality to at least as low as 12 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030. This study investigates the trends and progress of neonatal mortality rates in Ghana from 1960 to 2022, with an emphasis on assessing the country's advancement toward achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.2. Data were obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and processed using Microsoft Excel and analyzed using R statistical software. The AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series model was employed as the statistical model for this study. The results show a consistent decline in neonatal mortality over the study period. In 2023, the rate was estimated at 20.59 deaths per 1,000 live births, and it is projected to decline further to 17.60 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030. While this downward trend is encouraging, the 95% confidence intervals show considerable uncertainty: the 2030 upper bound remains well above the SDG 3.2 target, while the lower bound is only marginally above it. This indicates that Ghana may come close to the goal under favorable conditions, but is not assured of meeting it unless the rate of progress is significantly accelerated. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers and stakeholders, emphasizing the need for intensified efforts and strategic health interventions to achieve meaningful reductions in neonatal mortality by 2030.