ArticleBMC infectious diseases2025
Evaluation of non-vaccination brucellosis control strategies in class II regions using a transmission dynamics model: a case study from Hubei Province.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Frontline governance: a street-level bureaucracy perspective on brucellosis control in Western Iran.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and disease burden of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, 2014-2023.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo develop a transmission dynamics model for brucellosis in Hubei Province and evaluate non-vaccination control strategies.
methodsWe constructed a SsIs-W-ShEhIhCh(Susceptible sheep - Infected sheep - Environmental bacterial load - Susceptible humans - Exposed humans - Acute infected humans - Chronic infected humans) transmission dynamics model and assessed disease transmissibility through R0 calculation. Four intervention measures (environmental disinfection, improved diagnosis, personal protection, and infected sheep management) were evaluated independently and in combination.
resultsModel fitting showed high consistency with reported cases (R²=0.884, p > 0.999). Disease transmission exhibited three phases: high incidence (2014–2016, R0 = 1.86), decline (2020, R0 = 0.69), and rebound (2023 R0 = 1.76). Direct transmission (sheep-to-human) was the primary driver (78.6%-91.5% of R0). Among single interventions, personal protection yielded the greatest case reduction (93.51% case reduction), followed by infected sheep management (91.02%). The combination of these two measures achieved optimal effectiveness (95.98% case reduction).
conclusionBrucellosis transmission in Hubei Province is predominantly driven by direct transmission. Comprehensive control strategies should prioritize personal protection and infected sheep management, supplemented by environmental disinfection and improved diagnosis. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable.
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