Imminent rapid decline of the Indonesian Throughflow after reaching a turning point of CO2 concentration.

Shijian Hu, Xi Lu, Janet Sprintall, Cong Guan, Xiaozhou Ruan, Fan Wang

Abstract read

In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it

0cells of the map it votes in

0citing papers in PubMed

–field-weighted citation impact

1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Shijian HuCollege of Oceanography, Hohai University, Nanjing, China. sjhu@hhu.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6142-7441

Xi LuKey Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting and Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China.

Janet SprintallScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7428-7580

Cong GuanCollege of Oceanography, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.

Xiaozhou RuanDepartment of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1240-1584

Fan WangKey Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting and Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China. fwang@qdio.ac.cn.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) represents the only tropical inter-ocean pathway of global ocean circulation and plays a central role in the Earth's climate system. Climate models suggest that the ITF would be weakened under global warming, but historical observations indicate a contradictory trend. Here using CMIP6 simulations, we find that the response of the ITF to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is nonlinear and exhibits an abrupt rapid decline after surpassing a turning point. The ITF's decline can be explained by the response of its halosteric and thermosteric components to rising CO2 levels associated with changes in winds and precipitation. The current level of CO2 concentration has reached the turning point, indicating that a rapid decline of ITF and a transition of the Indo-Pacific state is likely imminent despite the remaining uncertainties. These findings have implications for understanding climate tipping elements and global ocean circulation under global warming.

Identifiers

PMID41285822

DOI10.1038/s41467-025-66746-0

PMCPMC12748715

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata

LicenceCC BY-NC-ND

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.