ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2026
US Overdose Mortality Saw First Drop Below the Jalal-Burke Exponential Growth Curve in 2024.
Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Between 1979 and 2016, US overdose death rates rose in a smooth fashion, described by Jalal and Burke using an exponential growth curve that fit observed data nearly perfectly. Fluctuations above this curve have subsequently been seen during shocks related to drug supply and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, large-magnitude dips below the curve have never been demonstrated. Given that overdose mortality began sharply falling during 2023-2024, we assess updated overdose trends against the Jalal-Burke curve. Methods: We examined US overdose deaths from the National Vital Statistics System between January 1979-December 2024. We recreated the Jalal-Burke curve, fitting an exponential growth curve to overdose rates from 1979 to 2016, linearly projecting through 2024, with 95% confidence intervals. We also examined trends by specific substance involvement. Results: After precipitously surpassing exponential growth predictions in 2020-2023, overdose deaths decreased sharply from approximately 32 per 100,000 in 2021-2023 to 23.7 in 2024, falling below the lower bound of Jalal-Burke curve (24.98 per 100,000) for the first time since 2001. These decreases reflected declining illicit fentanyl-involved deaths (with and without stimulants); however, deaths involving stimulants without fentanyl, and those involving xylazine, represent an increasing share of deaths in 2024. Conclusions: Rather than simply representing a return to the Jalal-Burke exponential growth curve, recent decreases in overdose deaths represent the first significant, large-magnitude deviation below exponential growth projections. These trends represent a very positive development. However, challenges in the US drug crisis are shifting, requiring a tailored public health response.
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