Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41281206›Full record

ArticleArXiv2025

Benchmarking Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Models on Neural Activity.

Ziyu Lu, Anna J Li, Alexander E Ladd, Pascha Matveev, Aditya Deole, Eric Shea-Brown, J Nathan Kutz, Nicholas A Steinmetz

Abstract readPreprint
In one paragraph

Article in ArXiv, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Ziyu LuDepartment of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Anna J LiDepartment of Neurobiology and Biophysics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Alexander E LaddDepartment of Neurobiology and Biophysics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Pascha MatveevDepartment of Neurobiology and Biophysics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Aditya DeoleDepartment of Neurobiology and Biophysics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Eric Shea-BrownDepartment of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
J Nathan KutzDepartment of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Nicholas A SteinmetzDepartment of Neurobiology and Biophysics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.

Funding

VISUAL SCIENCES TRAINING PROGRAMT32EY007031 · NEI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Wyeth Daniel Bair, Anitha Pasupathy · 1985 to 2026
$6.1M
The distributed basis of visual cortical variabilityF31EY035880 · NEI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Anna Li · 2024 to 2026
$149k
NEI NIH HHS F31 EY035880NEI NIH HHS T32 EY007031
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Neural activity forecasting is central to understanding neural systems and enabling closed-loop control. While deep learning has recently advanced the state-of-the-art in the time series forecasting literature, its application to neural activity forecasting remains limited. To bridge this gap, we systematically evaluated eight probabilistic deep learning models, including two foundation models, that have demonstrated strong performance on general forecasting benchmarks. We compared them against four classical statistical models and two baseline methods on spontaneous neural activity recorded from mouse cortex via widefield imaging. Across prediction horizons, several deep learning models consistently outperformed classical approaches, with the best model producing informative forecasts up to 1.5 seconds into the future. Our findings point toward future control applications and open new avenues for probing the intrinsic temporal structure of neural activity.

Identifiers

PMID41281206
PMCPMC12633634

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.