Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41275868›Full record

ArticleThe lancet. HIV2026

Identifying priority populations for HIV interventions using acquisition and transmission indicators: a combined analysis of 15 mathematical models from ten African countries.

Romain Silhol, Ross D Booton, Kate M Mitchell, James Stannah, Oliver Stevens, Dobromir Dimitrov, Anna Bershteyn, Leigh F Johnson, Sherrie L Kelly, Hae-Young Kim and 12 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The lancet. HIV, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

22 authors.

Romain SilholMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; HIV Prevention Trials Network Modelling Centre, Imperial College London, London, UK. Electronic address: r.silhol@imperial.ac.uk.
Ross D BootonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Kate M MitchellMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Department of Nursing and Community Health, Glasgow Caledonian University, London, UK.
James StannahDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada.
Oliver StevensMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Dobromir DimitrovVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Anna BershteynDepartment of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.
Leigh F JohnsonCentre for Integrated Data and Epidemiological Research, School of Public Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Sherrie L KellyBurnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Hae-Young KimDepartment of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.
Mathieu Maheu-GirouxDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada.
Rowan Martin-HughesBurnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Sharmistha MishraDepartment of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Jack StonePopulation Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Robyn StuartBurnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
John StoverAvenir Health, Glastonbury, CT, USA.
Peter VickermanPopulation Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
David P WilsonBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA.
Stefan BaralDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Deborah DonnellVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Jeffrey W Imai-EatonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Marie-Claude BoilyMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; HIV Prevention Trials Network Modelling Centre, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Funding

SDMC: HPTN 084 Pregnancy SupplementUM1AI068617 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Elizabeth Renata Brown, Deborah J Donnell · 2011 to 2026
$204.9M
Drug concentration measurement for HIV prevention targets: toward a population-based HIV impact assessment (PHIA) for PrEPR01AI179417 · NIAID · NEW YORK UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE · PI Anna Bershteyn, Dobromir Dimitrov · 2024 to 2026
$2.5M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI179417NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068617Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCharacterising disparities in HIV infection across populations by gender, age, and HIV risk is key information to guide intervention priorities. We aimed to assess how indicators measuring HIV acquisitions, transmissions, or potential long-term infections influence estimates of the contribution of different populations to new infections, including key populations (including female sex workers, their clients, men who have sex with men).

methodsIn this mathematical model comparison analysis, we evaluated four indicators using nine models representing 15 different settings across Africa. The acquisition indicator (I

findingsDifferent indicators identified distinct priority populations as the largest contributors: I

interpretationIndicators that reflect HIV acquisitions and transmissions in the short and long term can be used to capture the complexity of HIV epidemics across different populations and timeframes. The added nuance would improve the effectiveness of the HIV prevention response across all populations at risk.

fundingUS National Institutes of Health and UK Medical Research Council. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Indexed as

HIV InfectionsModels, TheoreticalAdolescentAdultAfricaFemaleHomosexuality, MaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedSex WorkersYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID41275868
PMCPMC13589583

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.