Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41275057›Full record

ArticlePediatric nephrology (Berlin, Germany)2026

One-year creatinine predicts long-term graft survival in pediatric kidney transplant recipients.

Matthew Stout, Muhammad Saad Hafeez, Roman Gorchs, Aamilah Chowdhury, Jaden Ju, Ashley Montgomery, Eileen Brewer, Abbas Rana

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Article in Pediatric nephrology (Berlin, Germany), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Matthew StoutDepartment of Student Affairs, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA. Matt.Stout@bcm.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0001-7935-7832
Muhammad Saad HafeezDepartment of Surgery, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9786-933X
Roman GorchsDepartment of Student Affairs, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0004-8189-1630
Aamilah ChowdhuryDepartment of Student Affairs, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0009-8847-8730
Jaden JuDepartment of Student Affairs, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0005-2175-6071
Ashley MontgomeryDepartment of Student Affairs, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6399-0801
Eileen BrewerDepartment of Pediatrics, Renal Section, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7365-5986
Abbas RanaDivision of Abdominal Transplantation, Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2979-0598

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn pediatric kidney transplant, recipients' long-term graft survival remains variable necessitating methods to predict the timing of graft failure. Studies in adults have identified post-transplant serum creatinine (sCr) as a biomarker for graft survival. Our goal was to investigate the predictive value of 1-year sCr levels on long-term graft survival in pediatric kidney recipients.

methodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study of Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network data. We identified 8733 pediatric kidney transplant recipients between 2008 and 2021 with reported 1-year sCr levels. Patients were grouped by sCr level: ≤ 1.0, 1.0-1.5, 1.5-2.0, and ≥ 2.0 mg/dL. We analyzed long-term graft survival with a Kaplan-Meier curve and a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. We developed a predictive score derived from a sCr-based model and an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)-based model and compared them using DeLong's test.

resultsMean 1-year sCr was 0.88 mg/dL, and higher 1-year sCr predicted long-term graft failure (sCr 1.0-1.5 adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.73, sCr 1.5-2.0 aHR 2.64, sCr ≥ 2.0 aHR 6.92, p < 0.001 for all). The mean 1-year eGFR was 71.66 mL/min/1.73 m

conclusionsUtilizing 1-year sCr may allow for early identification of patients at risk of graft failure for careful surveillance and prognostication for patients' expectations.

Indexed as

CreatinineGraft RejectionGraft SurvivalKidney TransplantationAdolescentBiomarkersChildChild, PreschoolFemaleGlomerular Filtration RateHumansInfantKaplan-Meier EstimateMalePredictive Value of TestsPrognosisBiomarkersCreatinineGraft survivalKidney transplantationOutcomesPediatricsSerum creatinine

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PMID41275057

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