ArticleNature communications2025
Climate variation and serotype competition drive dengue outbreak dynamics in Singapore.
Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Daily Mosnodenvir as Dengue Prophylaxis in a Controlled Human Infection Model.The New England journal of medicine · 2025Trial
- Cross-national prediction of imported dengue risk in Northeast Asia using climate, hydrological, and viral epidemiological indicators.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- Unresolved questions in pediatric dengue: from disease mechanisms to prevention.Current opinion in infectious diseases · 2026Review
- Recommendations for the analysis of leading indicators in epidemic surveillance.PLOS digital health · 2026Review
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Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Dengue poses a rapidly increasing threat to global health, with Southeast Asia among the most affected regions. Climate-informed early warning systems can help mitigate outbreaks; however, prediction of large outbreaks with sufficient lead time remains a challenge. In this study, we quantified the role of climatic variation and serotype competition in shaping dengue risk in Singapore using over 20 years of weekly case data. We integrated these insights into a forecasting framework capable of predicting dengue outbreaks up to two months ahead and generated counterfactual projections to assess the impact of novel interventions, such as Wolbachia. While a climate-informed model improved predictive power by 54% compared to a seasonal baseline, including serotype information increased this to 60%, better explaining interannual variation in dengue incidence. By incorporating serotype competition as a proxy for population immunity, this work advances the field of climate-informed dengue prediction and demonstrates the value of long-term virus surveillance.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.