Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41262457›Full record

ArticleBiosafety and health2025

Global trends, age-period-cohort analysis, and future projections of diarrhea burden: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Mengjiao Xie, Yang Song, Jing Tao, Mengnan Jiang, Yang Liu, Io Hong Cheong, Zisis Kozlakidis, Zhaorui Chang, Qiang Wei

Erratum issuedAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Biosafety and health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Mengjiao XieNational Pathogen Resource Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
Yang SongDivision of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning on Infectious Disease, National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
Jing TaoNational Pathogen Resource Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
Mengnan JiangNational Pathogen Resource Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
Yang LiuNational Pathogen Resource Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
Io Hong CheongState Key Laboratory of Oncogenes and Related Genes, Centre for Single-Cell Omics, School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China.
Zisis KozlakidisLaboratory Services and Biobank Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), World Health Organization, Lyon 69007, France.
Zhaorui ChangDivision of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning on Infectious Disease, National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
Qiang WeiNational Pathogen Resource Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.

Funding

World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Diarrhea is currently a prominent global public health issue. This study evaluated recent trends in the global burden of diarrhea and projected future changes over the next decade. Using the diarrhea data from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2021, this study assessed the temporal trends using Joinpoint regression and explored the impact of different factors using age-period-cohort modeling. Decomposition analysis identified drivers of disease burden changes, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model predicted future trends. Additionally, health inequalities were measured by the inequality slope index and the concentration index. Results show a downward trend in the global burden of diarrhea since 1990. Age-period-cohort analysis suggests that the risk of incidence decreases with age until the age of 20, but increases with age after the age of 60. Risk of death from diarrhea was highest in children aged 0-4 and also increasesd after the age of 60. Decomposition identified population growth as the primary driver of burden changes, and BAPC projections indicated that the burden of diarrhea will continue declining. However, significant inequalities persist, with lower sociodemographic index (SDI) countries bearing a disproportionately high burden, although these gaps have decreased over time. The conclusion highlights that children under 5 and adults over 60 face the highest risks of diarrhea incidence and death. More attention should be paid to these populations, and effective public health policies should be implemented.

Indexed as

Age-period-cohort modelingDiarrheaGlobal burden of diseaseIncidenceLow- and middle-income countries (LMICs)

Identifiers

PMID41262457
PMCPMC12624536

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.