The MAGA movement and political violence in 2024: findings from a nationally representative survey.

backgroundToo little is known about the distribution of risk for committing political violence, a serious concern for the United States. This study explores the association between affiliation with the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement and support for and willingness to engage in political violence.

methodsFindings are from Wave 3 of a nationally representative annual longitudinal survey of members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, conducted May 23-June 14, 2024. All KnowledgePanel members who responded to prior waves were invited to participate. Political party and MAGA affiliations were reported by respondents; the principal comparison is between MAGA Republicans and non-MAGA non-Republicans. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions and adjusted prevalence differences (aPDs, reported as percentage point (pp) differences), with p-values adjusted for the false discovery rate.

resultsThe completion rate was 88.4%; there were 8896 respondents. MAGA Republicans were more likely than non-MAGA non-Republicans to endorse violence to effect sociopolitical change and to consider violence usually or always justified to advance at least 1 of 21 specific political objectives (MAGA Republicans, 55.9% (95% CI 52.3%, 59.4%); non-MAGA non-Republicans, 25.5% (95% CI 23.7%, 27.2%); aPD 30.1pp (95% CI 26.0pp, 34.2pp), q < 0.001). They were not more willing to commit political violence. Similarly, while MAGA Republicans more frequently predicted that they would be armed in a setting where they considered political violence justified, they were not more likely to shoot someone (very or extremely likely: MAGA Republicans, 2.1% (95% CI 0.8%, 3.4%); non-MAGA non-Republicans, 1.6% (95% CI 1.0%, 2.1%); aPD 1.5pp (95% CI -0.1pp, 3.0pp), q = 0.43). Prevalences for other Republicans generally fell between those for MAGA Republicans and non-MAGA non-Republicans. In secondary analyses, MAGA Republicans endorsed attributes associated with political violence-racism, hostile sexism, homonegativity, transphobia, xenophobia, and Islamophobia; support for the QAnon movement and Christian nationalism; conspiracism; trait aggression; and authoritarianism-more frequently than did non-MAGA non-Republicans.

conclusionsIn 2024, MAGA Republicans were more likely than others to endorse political violence and attributes associated with political violence. They were not more willing to commit political violence themselves; their endorsement may increase the risk that political violence will occur.