ArticleBMC public health2025
The impact of various forms of non-alcoholic beverage taxation on sales of non-alcoholic beverages and sugar in the Netherlands: a modelling study.
Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundIn January 2024, the flat consumption tax on non-alcoholic beverages in the Netherlands was increased from €8.83 per 100 l to €26.13 per 100 l. In various countries tiered taxes have been implemented. This study aims to assess the impact of flat and tiered taxes on sales of non-alcoholic beverages and sugar from these beverages in the Netherlands for the year 2025.
methodsFor 2025, sales of non-alcoholic beverages (in litres) and sugar from non-alcoholic beverages (in kilograms) were estimated for six scenarios: (i) the previous lower-rate non-alcoholic beverage tax (€8.83 per 100 l) (reference); (ii) the current higher-rate non-alcoholic beverage tax (€26.13 per 100 l); and (iii) four possible tiered non-alcoholic beverage taxes based on the sugar content of the beverages. Model-based analyses were performed to estimate the non-alcohol beverages sales, using supermarket transaction data and taking into account autonomous growth and inflation. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of elasticity and product reformulation.
resultsNon-alcoholic beverage sales volumes in 2025 were estimated at 2,688.4 million litres for the lower-rate tax scenario, 2,304.9 million litres for the higher-rate tax scenario, and 1,982.0-2,060.7 million litres for the tiered tax scenarios. Sales of sugar from non-alcoholic beverages in 2025 were 136.8 million kilograms for the lower-rate tax scenario, 117.8 million kilograms for the higher-rate tax scenario, and 96.5-100.2 million kilograms for the tiered tax scenarios. The higher-rate tax scenario was estimated to decrease non-alcoholic beverage sales volumes by 14.3% and sales of sugar from non-alcoholic beverages by 13.9% compared with the lower-rate tax scenario. The tiered tax scenarios decreased non-alcoholic beverage sales volumes by 23.4-26.3% and sales of sugar from non-alcoholic beverages by 26.7%-29.5% compared with the lower-rate tax scenario.
conclusionsThe implementation of tiered non-alcoholic beverage taxation could substantially decrease sales of non-alcoholic beverages and sugar from non-alcoholic beverages in the Netherlands, exceeding the impact of the flat consumption tax increase, and thereby potentially improving population health.
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