ArticleBMC public health2025
Nonlinear and lagged effects of climate variability on dengue incidence in an urban megacity: a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) based study in Bangkok, Thailand.
Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Climate Variability Drives Dengue Transmission in Bangladesh.Infectious disease reports · 2026Article
- Climate drivers and winter constraints of dengue epidemics: a 10-year epidemiological perspective study in the Lao People's Democratic Republic.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2026Article
- From adaptation to overload: how climate risks affect public health?-evidence from China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Meteorological drivers and short-term prediction of dengue fever in a tropical region of China: evidence from Hainan Province.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDengue fever represents a significant and escalating public health challenge in tropical megacities such as Bangkok, Thailand. This study aims to examine the associations between temperature, humidity, rainfall, and wind speed with dengue incidence across multiple lag periods and to explore spatial heterogeneity in these climate-dengue relationships across Bangkok’s urban zones. METHODOLOGY: Analysis of 105,890 confirmed dengue cases reported in Bangkok between 2015 and 2024, stratified across six urban zones. Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNM) were employed to quantify the effects of four key meteorological variables: temperature, humidity, rainfall, and wind speed.
resultsSignificant non-linear relationships and heterogeneity in climate-driven dengue risk were found across both space and time. Spatially, the effects were most pronounced for humidity and wind speed. For instance, over a 0–2 months lag, higher humidity was associated with a substantial increase in risk in North Krung Thon (RR=1.477, 95% CI: 1.290–1.690) but a significant protective effect in South and Middle Bangkok. Similarly, wind speed was associated with a significant risk increase in South Bangkok (RR=1.405, 95% CI: 1.293–1.526) but a protective effect in East Bangkok (RR=0.749, 95% CI: 0.710–0.789). Elevated minimum temperature also exhibited a spatially varied impact, peaking in Middle Bangkok (RR=1.350, 95% CI: 1.288–1.414). The analysis confirmed distinct patterns over time, with climate impacts manifesting as immediate risks in some zones and as pronounced delayed risks (8–12 months) in others.
conclusionThe associations between climatic variables and dengue incidence in Bangkok are highly complex, non-linear, and characterized by significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The varied timing of climate impacts, from immediate to delayed, suggests that public health responses must be adapted to the unique temporal risk structures of each urban zone, providing a framework for more precise interventions in complex urban environments.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.