ArticleCommunications psychology2025
Hypothetical nudges provide directional but noisy estimates of real behavior change.
Article in Communications psychology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Psychosocial and Social Security Risks Linked to Vaccine Misinformation in Romania: Implications for Vaccination Acceptance and Public Policy.Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Enhancing climate resilience with proximal cues in personalized climate disaster preparedness messaging.Nature human behaviour · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Hypothetical scenarios provide an extremely useful alternative to field experiments for scholars interested in nudging behavior change, comprising a substantial proportion of the literature. Yet the extent to which hypotheticals accurately estimate real-world treatment effects is not well understood. To investigate, we identified five recent field studies of real-world nudges in distinct domains and designed four styles of hypothetical scenarios to approximate each one. This setup allows for clear comparison of old field data with new hypothetical data. Across our 20 experiments (N = 16,114), hypothetical scenarios nearly always estimated the correct direction of treatment effects. However, they varied widely in estimating magnitudes, making them unreliable inputs to real-world policy applications such as cost-benefit analyses. Our findings underscore the promising value of hypotheticals, but also the need for greater investigation into strategies to calibrate their estimates.
Identifiers
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.