ArticleBMC public health2025
Incidence trend analysis of human brucellosis in the context of human development: an ecological study using joinpoint regression in Iran.
Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Spatio-temporal analysis of human brucellosis in North Khorasan, Iran (2015-2023): A cross-sectional study.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Resurgence of Human Brucellosis in Khuzestan Province, Southwestern Iran: Epidemiological Trends From 2017 to 2024.International journal of microbiology · 2026Article
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Abstract
backgroundHuman brucellosis (HB) remains a significant public health concern in Iran, where its burden may be shaped by socio-developmental factors. This ecological time trend analysis explores long-term patterns in HB incidence in the context of human development.
methodsWe conducted Joinpoint regression analysis to assess temporal trends in HB incidence from 2000 to 2023 in Iran. The Human Development Index (HDI) was included as a predictor to examine associations using Spearman correlation and linear regression on log-transformed HDI. Residual diagnostics and robust regression techniques were applied.
resultsThe overall annual percentage change (AAPC) in HB incidence showed a slight but statistically significant upward trend (+ 0.45%; p = 0.023). Joinpoint regression identified four statistically significant changes in trend. A moderate negative correlation was observed between HB incidence and HDI (Spearman's ρ = - 0.54). Linear regression indicated an inverse association between log(HDI) and HB incidence (β = - 65.96, p = 0.044), though the explained variance was limited (R² = 0.226).
conclusionThe findings suggest that higher levels of human development may be associated with reduced HB incidence at the national level. However, this association is likely influenced by unmeasured factors such as access to veterinary care, cultural practices, and surveillance quality. Caution is warranted in interpreting these findings due to the ecological study design and potential underreporting.
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