Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41248381›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2025

Spatial-temporal analysis of natural hazards and disasters in the Greater Horn of Africa between 2010 and 2024 to inform disaster risk reduction, and surveillance and control strategies for climate and environmentally sensitive diseases.

Luke E Norris, Morgan Lemin, Louise A Kelly-Hope

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Luke E NorrisInstitute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Morgan LeminInstitute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Louise A Kelly-HopeInstitute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK lkhope@liverpool.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3330-7629

Funding

Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo determine the spatial-temporal patterns of natural hazards and disasters in the Greater Horn of Africa, including climate and environmentally sensitive diseases, and compare the reporting consistencies across multiple open-access databases.

designCross-sectional retrospective secondary analysis of natural hazard and disaster data.

settingDjibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda. DATA SOURCES: Primary data from Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), and comparative data from ReliefWeb, WHO Disease Outbreak News (WHO-DON), FloodList and Global Unique Disaster Identifier Number (GLIDE).

resultsEM-DAT reported 228 natural hazards and disasters affecting 145.7 million people; highest numbers reported in Uganda (n=48), Kenya (n=46), Somalia (n=38) and Ethiopia (n=35); 175 geophysical, hydrological, meteorological and climatological hazards reported, including 118 floods, 26 droughts, 11 storms and 17 landslides; 46 epidemics reported, primarily bacterial (eg, cholera) or viral (eg, yellow fever, measles) diseases, with 20% preceded by a flood, drought or landslide within the previous 3 months. Reporting consistency and content varied considerably across the five databases.

conclusionNatural hazards and disasters affect millions of people. There is an urgent need to improve database connectedness to facilitate better monitoring and mapping, which can inform disease forecasting and decision tools to develop preparedness and intervention strategies.

Indexed as

DisastersDisease OutbreaksNatural DisastersClimate ChangeCross-Sectional StudiesDroughtsEthiopiaFloodsHumansRetrospective StudiesSomaliaSpatio-Temporal AnalysisDisease OutbreaksEpidemicsEpidemiologyHealth informaticsPublic health

Identifiers

PMID41248381
PMCPMC12587947

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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