ArticleZhongguo xiu fu chong jian wai ke za zhi = Zhongguo xiufu chongjian waike zazhi = Chinese journal of reparative and reconstructive surgery2025
[Trends in burden of pelvic fractures from 1990 to 2023 and long short-term memory-based insights into future projections].
Article in Zhongguo xiu fu chong jian wai ke za zhi = Zhongguo xiufu chongjian waike zazhi = Chinese journal of reparative and reconstructive surgery, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Objective: To analyze the disease burden of pelvic fractures at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2023 using data from the 2023 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), and to predict the disease burden through 2050. Methods: Leveraging data from the GBD 2023, this study investigated the disease burden of pelvic fractures across 204 countries and regions. Assessment indicators included incidence rate, prevalence rate, and years lived with disability (YLDs). The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze trends in pelvic fracture burden from 1990 to 2023, while the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to quantify this temporal trend. The relationship between the socio-demographic index and pelvic fracture burden was evaluated. Furthermore, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model was applied to predict trends in pelvic fracture burden through 2050. Results: In 2023, the estimated number of new pelvic fracture cases globally was 7 479 884 [95% uncertainty interval ( Conclusion: Although the overall incidence rate, prevalence rate, and YLDs of pelvic fractures have exhibited an upward trend over the past three decades, the ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized years of life lost rate (ASYR) have shown a downward trend. It is predicted that over the upcoming 26-year period, the age-standardized rate of disease burden due to pelvic fractures will further decrease, while the number of incident cases and prevalent cases will continue to exhibit an upward trend. Formulating more targeted disease prevention strategies is critical to addressing disparities across genders, regions, and other dimensions, and to mitigating the burden of pelvic fractures.
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