ArticleAcademic pediatrics2026
Individual Risk Versus Population Incidence: A Case Example With Congenital Heart Defects.
Article in Academic pediatrics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveMany studies have shown that individuals in low socioeconomic status neighborhoods are more likely to have a severe congenital heart defect (CHD) compared to those in higher socioeconomic status neighborhoods. These studies conclude that this finding should be leveraged for population health policy. However, individual-level associations may not extend to populations. Thus, our objective was to estimate associations between county-level median home value and county-level incidence of live-born, severe CHDs.
methodsEcological analysis of statewide panel data at the county-year level. All neonates with a severe CHD born in Illinois, July 2013 to December 2021, were identified from the Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes Reporting System (Illinois Department of Public Health). The outcome was county-level incidence of liveborn, severe CHD. The exposure was county-level median home value. Associations were estimated with multivariable Poisson models, stratified by census region (west, south/central, and northeast regions of the state), a modifier that was identified during analysis.
resultsAll 102 counties in Illinois were included. After regional stratification, low county-level median home value was associated with higher severe CHD incidence, but only in the western region of the state (IRR for lowest vs highest home value quartile: 1.96, 95%CI 1.14-3.38). There was no association between census tract-level median home value and individual probability of severe CHD in the western region.
conclusionsDifferences exist between county-level and individual-level associations of CHD and socioeconomic status. Ecologic and individual-level analyses have distinct, but complementary, roles in informing evidence-based policies and public health initiatives.
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