ArticleJournal of optometry
Nomogram to predict the axial elongation with orthokeratology: A 6-year follow up study.
Article in Journal of optometry. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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7 authors.
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Abstract
purposeTo develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting axial elongation in children with myopia undergoing orthokeratology (ortho-k) treatment.
methodsA cohort of 111 myopic children who received ortho-k between 2014 and 2016 and consistently wore lenses for at least 6 years was analyzed. Right eyes were used as the model group, left eyes as the validation group. Demographic and ocular parameters were collected. A multivariable logistic regression was applied to model group data to construct the nomogram. Discriminative ability was assessed using the concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Statistical analysis was conducted in R version 4.2.3, with p ≤ 0.05 considered significant.
resultsMean axial elongation in the first year was 0.14 mm (95 % CI: 0.12-0.17 mm); total elongation over six years was 0.83 mm (95 % CI: 0.75-0.91 mm). After adjusting for multicollinearity, age (β = -0.134, p < 0.001), gender (β = -0.226, p = 0.011; males as reference), baseline axial length (β = 0.950, p < 0.001), and first-year axial elongation (β = 1.714, p < 0.001) were independently associated with axial length after six years. The model yielded a C-index of 0.93 (95 % CI: 0.88-0.99) in the model group and 0.80 (95 % CI: 0.80-0.96) in the validation group. DCA showed clinical benefit.
conclusionsOrtho-k effectively slowed axial elongation over six years. The nomogram reliably predicts whether axial length will exceed 26.0 mm after long-term ortho-k treatment.
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