Habitat distribution of major wildlife in the Sanjiangyuan National park under climate scenarios based on maxent modeling.

Sanjiangyuan National Park (SNP), the first national park established in China, plays a pivotal role in conserving biodiversity on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. This study investigates the habitat suitability and projected future distribution of four key species: the Tibetan antelope (Pantholops hodgsonii), kiang (Equus kiang), Tibetan gazelle (Procapra picticaudata), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Utilizing 358 occurrence records and the MaxEnt model, we predicted current and future suitable habitats under different climate scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. Our findings indicate that suitable habitats are significantly influenced by factors such as elevation, temperature, and vegetation health. Among the species studied, the Tibetan gazelle exhibits the most extensive suitable habitat, followed by the kiang, Tibetan antelope, and wild yak. Specifically, the Tibetan antelope's habitat is anticipated to shift northward, while the kiang and wild yak may experience further habitat fragmentation, thereby increasing risks to their populations. Additionally, the results highlight the importance of integrating climate considerations into future conservation planning to ensure the long-term survival of these species. By identifying regions with optimal environmental conditions, conservation strategies can be more effectively directed to maintain and improve these habitats, thereby preserving biodiversity within the Sanjiangyuan region.