Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41225279›Full record

ArticleGeroScience2026

Life-extending interventions do not necessarily result in compression of morbidity: a case example offering a robust statistical approach.

Deependra K Thapa, Wasiuddin Najam, Erik S Parker, Xi Rita Wang, Daniel L Smith, Ufuk Beyaztas, James F Nelson, Steven N Austad, Gary A Churchill, David B Allison

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in GeroScience, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Deependra K ThapaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health-Bloomington, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA. dethapa@iu.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-5689-0837
Wasiuddin NajamDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health-Bloomington, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5867-8883
Erik S ParkerDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health-Bloomington, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5537-7900
Xi Rita WangUSDA/ARS Children's Nutrition Research Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0133-7521
Daniel L SmithDepartment of Nutrition Sciences, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1602-2023
Ufuk BeyaztasDepartment of Statistics, Marmara University, Istanbul, Turkey.ORCID 0000-0002-5208-4950
James F NelsonDepartment of Cellular and Integrative Physiology, UT Health San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7439-3033
Steven N AustadDepartment of Biology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4798-8442
Gary A ChurchillThe Jackson Laboratory, Bar Harbor, ME, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9190-9284
David B AllisonDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health-Bloomington, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA. David.Allison@bcm.edu.ORCID 0000-0003-3566-9399

Funding

TRANSGENIC COREP30AG013319 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS HLTH SCIENCE CENTER · PI JAMES FLOYD NELSON · 1995 to 2026
$30.6M
Center for Testing Potential Anti-Aging InterventionsU01AG022307 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS HLTH SCIENCE CENTER · PI RANDY STRONG, Adam Salmon · 2004 to 2026
$26.3M
Translational CoreP30AG038070 · NIA · JACKSON LABORATORY · PI John Matthew Mahoney · 2010 to 2026
$19.3M
Sex hormones and arthritis in a long lived animal modelP30AG050886 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT BIRMINGHAM · PI Jianhua Zhang · 2015 to 2026
$11.3M
Discovering compounds with robust pro-longevity activitiesU01AG045844 · NIA · BUCK INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH ON AGING · PI Gordon J Lithgow · 2013 to 2026
$10.1M
Nathan Shock Centers Coordinating CenterU24AG056053 · NIA · AMERICAN FEDERATION FOR AGING RESEARCH · PI STEVEN N. AUSTAD, Stephanie Lederman · 2017 to 2026
$6.1M
The regulation of health and longevity by branched-chain amino acidsR01AG056771 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON · PI Dudley William Lamming · 2018 to 2026
$3.1M
Cellular Senescence, astrocytes and Alzheimer's diseaseR01AG051729 · NIA · BUCK INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH ON AGING · PI CAMPISI, JUDITH · 2016 to 2020
$2.7M
The regulation of cancer and aging by methionineR01AG084156 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON · PI VINCENT L. CRYNS, JOHN M DENU · 2023 to 2026
$2.5M
The regulation of health and longevity by branched-chain amino acidsRF1AG056771 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON · PI LAMMING, DUDLEY WILLIAM · 2023 to 2023
$2.1M
Comparative analysis of geroprotective interventions in established and novel mouse models of Alzheimer's diseaseR01AG062328 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON · PI LAMMING, DUDLEY WILLIAM, MERRINS, MATTHEW J. · 2018 to 2022
$2.0M
Safer mTOR inhibition for human geroprotectionU01AG081482 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON · PI Adam R Konopka, Dudley William Lamming · 2023 to 2026
$1.8M
NIA NIH HHS P30 AG013319NIA NIH HHS P30 AG038070NIA NIH HHS P30 AG050886NIA NIH HHS R01 AG051729NIA NIH HHS R01 AG056771NIA NIH HHS R01 AG062328NIA NIH HHS R01 AG084156NIA NIH HHS R56 AG056771NIA NIH HHS RF1 AG056771NIA NIH HHS U01 AG022307NIA NIH HHS U01 AG045844NIA NIH HHS U01 AG081482NIA NIH HHS U24 AG056053NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK125859NIH HHS P30AG050886NIH HHS U24AG056053
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Despite extensive research on life-extending interventions, rigorous statistical techniques to determine their impact on compression of morbidity (CoM) are rarely used. We present a case example of an analytical method for examining the effect of life-extending dietary interventions on CoM by comparing the rates of decline in vitality and survival toward the end of life. Using data from previous experimental studies in mice, we calculated the average rate of vitality decline by fitting exponential decay models to individual vitality trajectories and compared this rate with the rate of survival decline estimated from Cox proportional hazards model. The results showed that, surprisingly, the life-extending interventions failed to compress morbidity. Instead, the models suggested a potential expansion of morbidity with the interventions, particularly for chronic caloric restriction, as evidenced by a greater difference between the rates of vitality decline and survival decline in the intervention group than in the control group. The results further showed age-dependent effects, with interventions likely to demonstrate CoM at very old ages. These findings challenge the assumption that lifespan extension necessarily compresses morbidity, highlighting the need to consider lifespan, healthspan, and CoM as endpoints when evaluating anti-aging interventions. We do not claim that life-extending interventions categorically fail to achieve CoM; rather, we demonstrate how a rigorous statistical approach can be applied to test the CoM hypothesis. Our framework offers a valuable tool for future studies, and further refining this method will be crucial to determine under which circumstances lifespan extension leads to CoM. The potential to choose from multiple analyses of CoM calls for leadership in the geroscience community both to standardize the nomenclature so that different CoM analysis approaches can be communicated clearly and to establish a "default" CoM analysis for everyone to use in addition to their analyses of choice, thus facilitating comparisons and meta-analyses across studies.

Indexed as

Caloric RestrictionLife ExpectancyLongevityAgedAnimalsFemaleHumansMaleModels, StatisticalMorbidityProportional Hazards ModelsCompression of morbidityHealthspanLifespanLifespan-extending interventionsSurvivalVitality

Identifiers

PMID41225279
PMCPMC12972480

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.