Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41223277›Full record

ArticleScience advances2025

Land change, fire, and climate weaken carbon sink in the conterminous United States.

Jinxun Liu, Benjamin M Sleeter, Zhiliang Zhu, Mark A Cochrane, Qiang Zhou, Bin Wang, Grant M Domke, Paul C Selmants, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Qiuan Zhu and 9 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Jinxun LiuUS Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0561-8988
Benjamin M SleeterUS Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA.
Zhiliang ZhuUS Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6860-6936
Mark A CochraneUniversity of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES), Cambridge, MD 21613, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4573-568X
Qiang ZhouScience Systems and Applications, Inc (SSAI), contractor to NASA GSFC, Pueblo, CO 81001, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1282-8177
Bin WangComputational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0453-458X
Grant M DomkeUSDA Forest Service, Washington, DC 20250, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0485-0355
Paul C SelmantsUS Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6211-3957
Lisamarie Windham-MyersUS Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA.
Qiuan ZhuHohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210098, China.ORCID 0000-0002-2246-6325
Tamara S WilsonUS Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-7399-7532
Kristin B ByrdUS Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5725-7486
Eric J WardEarth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5047-5464
Terry L SohlUS Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9771-4231
Todd J HawbakerUS Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0930-9154
Zhen ZhangInstitute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
Christopher E SoulardUS Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5777-9516
Kimberly P WicklandUS Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6400-0590
Robert G StrieglUS Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8251-4659

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The land carbon sink of the conterminous United States was evaluated using a bottom-up modeling framework and 30-meter land change data from 1985 to 2020. This cross-scale, cross-landscape, and cross-system approach tracked fractional land cover changes and applied regional model calibration. Results show average terrestrial and aquatic carbon sinks of +110 ± 37 and +19 ± 0.5 teragrams of carbon per year, respectively. The terrestrial carbon sink, showing no clear trend, peaked in the 1990s, with more years as a carbon source since 2000, contradicting recent national and global studies. Land change had the largest impact (-70 ± 5.5 teragrams of carbon per year), exceeding impacts of climate (-33 ± 48 teragrams of carbon per year), wildfire (-7.7 ± 2.4 teragrams of carbon per year), and erosion transport (-1.9 ± 0.13 teragrams of carbon per year). The positive CO

Identifiers

PMID41223277
PMCPMC12609119

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.