Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41220098›Full record

SynthesisMolecular oncology2026

Screening for lung cancer: A systematic review of overdiagnosis and its implications.

Fiorella Karina Fernández-Sáenz, Laura de la Torre-Perez, David R Baldwin, Carlijn van der Aalst, Mangesh Thorat, David Ritchie, Andre L Carvalho, Carolina Espina, Ivan Solà, Carlos Canelo-Aybar and 3 more

Abstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Molecular oncology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Review
  3. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Fiorella Karina Fernández-SáenzInstitut de Recerca Sant Pau (IR SANT PAU), Barcelona, Spain.
Laura de la Torre-PerezInstitut de Recerca Sant Pau (IR SANT PAU), Barcelona, Spain.
David R BaldwinNottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, UK.
Carlijn van der AalstDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Netherlands.
Mangesh ThoratWolfson Institute of Population Health, Quenn Mary University of London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8673-5320
David RitchieInternational Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), France.
Andre L CarvalhoInternational Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), France.
Carolina EspinaInternational Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), France.
Ivan SolàInstitut de Recerca Sant Pau (IR SANT PAU), Barcelona, Spain.
Carlos Canelo-AybarInstitut de Recerca Sant Pau (IR SANT PAU), Barcelona, Spain.
Moira Magdalena PissinisInstitut de Recerca Sant Pau (IR SANT PAU), Barcelona, Spain.
Pablo Alonso-CoelloInstitut de Recerca Sant Pau (IR SANT PAU), Barcelona, Spain.
Ana Carolina Pereira Nunes PintoInstitut de Recerca Sant Pau (IR SANT PAU), Barcelona, Spain.ORCID 0000-0002-1505-877X

Funding

European Commission, through the EU4Health Programme 101075240World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening is increasingly used for early lung cancer detection targeted to high-risk populations. Quantifying overdiagnosis, its potential harms, and economic consequences is important. We assessed the magnitude, harms, and economic impact of lung cancer overdiagnosis from LDCT screening in high-risk populations. We synthesized evidence from eight randomized trials involving 84,660 participants. LDCT may increase overdiagnosis compared to no screening (relative risk [RR] 1.05; 222 additional cases per 100 000 people screened; low certainty). Compared to chest x-ray (CXR), LDCT likely slightly increases overdiagnosis (RR 1.01; 63 additional cases per 100 000 people screened; moderate certainty). The proportion of overdiagnosed cancers is 0.07 (7000 more lung cancers overdiagnosed per 100 000 lung cancers detected; low certainty) when compared to no screening, and 0.01 compared to CXR (1000 more lung cancers overdiagnosed per 100 000 lung cancers detected; moderate certainty). In terms of cost, LDCT resulted in an additional societal burden of €2,026,422.00 per 100 000 individuals screened compared to no screening. The magnitude of overdiagnosis in LDCT screening is likely low compared to CXR.

Indexed as

Early Detection of CancerLung NeoplasmsOverdiagnosisHumansMass ScreeningMedical OveruseTomography, X-Ray Computedlow‐dose computed tomographylung canceroverdiagnosis

Identifiers

PMID41220098
PMCPMC13042368

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.