Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41216702›Full record

Observational studyJournal of oral rehabilitation2026

External Validation of a Clinical Prediction Tool for the Use of Manual Therapy in Patients With Temporomandibular Disorders.

G Asquini, V Devecchi, G Borromeo, P Tessera, A Russillo, A Michelotti, R Bucci, D Falla

Registry-linked trialAbstract readObservational StudyValidation Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in Journal of oral rehabilitation, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT03990662 (Predictors of Good Outcomes Following Manual Therapy in Patients With Temporomandibular Disorders), which is not on this map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT03990662 completednot on this map

Predictors of Good Outcomes Following Manual Therapy in Patients With Temporomandibular Disorders: Development and Validation Studies

TypeobservationalSponsorIstituto Stomatologico ItalianoRan2019 to 2025Enrolled180ConditionsTemporomandibular DisordersArmsPhysiotherapy - Manual Therapy
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

G AsquiniCentre of Precision Rehabilitation for Spinal Pain (CPR Spine), School of Sport, Exercise and Rehabilitation Sciences, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1683-7203
V DevecchiCentre of Precision Rehabilitation for Spinal Pain (CPR Spine), School of Sport, Exercise and Rehabilitation Sciences, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
G BorromeoItalian Stomatologic Institute, Craniomandibular Physiotherapy Service, Milan, Italy.
P TesseraItalian Stomatologic Institute, Craniomandibular Physiotherapy Service, Milan, Italy.
A RussilloDental and Maxillo-Facial Surgery Unit, IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore, Policlinico di Milano, Milan, Italy.
A MichelottiSection of Orthodontics, Department of Neurosciences, Reproductive Sciences and Oral Sciences, University of Naples 'Federico II', Napoli, Italy.
R BucciSection of Orthodontics, Department of Neurosciences, Reproductive Sciences and Oral Sciences, University of Naples 'Federico II', Napoli, Italy.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2588-2949
D FallaCentre of Precision Rehabilitation for Spinal Pain (CPR Spine), School of Sport, Exercise and Rehabilitation Sciences, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1689-6190

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundManual therapy (MT) is frequently used to manage temporomandibular disorders (TMDs), yet patient responses vary significantly. Predictive models may help clinicians tailor treatments to individual patients.

objectivesThe primary aim of this study was to externally validate a previously developed prediction model for identifying patients with TMDs who are more likely to benefit from MT. Additionally, new prognostic models to predict outcomes at a one-month follow-up were developed.

methodsA cohort of 124 adults with a diagnosis of a TMD received a four-week MT program (one session per week) applied to craniomandibular structures. Predictors collected at baseline included clinical and psychosocial variables: pain during mouth opening, pain localisation, treatment expectations, and the central sensitisation inventory (CSI). The primary outcome was a ≥ 30% pain reduction post-treatment. Model performance was assessed using discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis. New models predicting one-month outcomes were developed and internally validated via bootstrapping.

resultsThe original model showed strong discrimination and overall fit in the validation cohort (AUC = 0.95, R

conclusionsThis study externally validated a clinical prediction model for pain reduction in people with TMDs following MT, confirming previously identified predictors of good outcome such as pain during mouth opening, positive treatment expectations, localisation of pain in the craniocervical region, and lower CSI scores. A link to a web-based calculator of the prediction model is provided. The interaction between treatment expectations and CSI suggests that CSI plays a key role in shaping treatment response, modulating the influence of treatment expectation. Future studies with a control group are needed to confirm these results and distinguish true treatment effect modifiers from general prognostic factors.

trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03990662.

Indexed as

Facial PainMusculoskeletal ManipulationsTemporomandibular Joint DisordersAdultFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPain MeasurementPrognosisReproducibility of ResultsTreatment Outcomemanual therapypainprecision medicinepredictiontemporomandibular disorders

Identifiers

PMID41216702
PMCPMC12813515

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.