ArticleBMC public health2025
Disentangling the force of infection of SARS-CoV-2 in Dutch long-term care facilities.
Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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7 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) were disproportionately affected. To inform decision-making around interventions, we quantified the SARS-CoV-2 infection risk for residents and the relative contribution of different infection sources. We estimated the force of infection (FOI) experienced by Dutch LTCF residents over time and quantified the contributions of residents, LTCF healthcare workers (HCWs), and the general population. METHODS &
findingsCase data were obtained by Municipal Health Services as part of the Dutch national surveillance program. During the study period (1 October 2020 to 10 November 2021), testing policies included symptom-based testing, exposure-based testing, and facility-wide serial testing. We used a data augmentation approach to include uncertainty in the timing of infection, while taking account of different testing policies. We constructed a Bayesian generalized linear model to estimate group-specific transmission rate parameters and contributions to the FOI experienced by residents. During the study period 36,877 cases were registered among residents and 19,676 among HCWs. The total daily FOI towards residents was highest in December 2020 (1.7*10
conclusionsRelative contributions to the FOI in LTCF residents varied substantially over time. COVID-19 vaccination appears to have been effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission towards residents, although other factors such as seasonality or non-pharmaceutical interventions may also have contributed to this. Such estimates of temporal trends in contributions to the FOI in LTCF residents can help inform future intervention efforts.
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