Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41214297›Full record

ReviewNature food2025

Complexity and uncertainty in future food system transformation modelling.

Enayat A Moallemi, Adam C Castonguay, Daniel Mason-D'Croz, Rohan Nelson, Wolfgang Britz, Cameron Allen, Michalis Hadjikakou, Michael Battaglia, Brett A Bryan, Costanza Conti and 7 more

Abstract readReview
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Review in Nature food, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Enayat A Moallemi *The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia. enayat.moallemi@csiro.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8346-4043
Adam C Castonguay *Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), St Lucia, Queensland, Australia. adam.charette-castonguay@csiro.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3312-5849
Daniel Mason-D'CrozDepartment of Global Development and Atkinson Center for Sustainability, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0673-2301
Rohan NelsonThe Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
Wolfgang BritzInstitute for Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8532-3823
Cameron AllenMonash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9954-6684
Michalis HadjikakouSchool of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3667-3982
Michael BattagliaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0144-5442
Brett A BryanSchool of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4834-5641
Costanza ContiM. S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, Chennai, India.
Raymundo Marcos-MartinezThe Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7925-7081
Stefan FrankIntegrated Biosphere Futures (IBF) Research Group, Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547
Duy NongCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), St Lucia, Queensland, Australia.
Sibel EkerInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
Saman RazaviSchool of Environment and Sustainability and National Hydrology Research Centre, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
Javier Navarro-GarciaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), St Lucia, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7945-0693
Lei GaoCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Urrbrae, South Australia, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4272-9417

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Food systems face multi-dimensional pressures and require integrated assessments of environmental, social, health and economic dimensions to inform their transformation. Although economic equilibrium models and integrated assessment models have been instrumental in this context, future decision-making requires more diverse and inclusive participatory processes. Here we evaluate the ability of current models to represent food systems and identify challenges and opportunities regarding key aspects of their transformative change, including socio-political dynamics and human-nature feedbacks, links between global and local scales, robustness under uncertainty, as well as evolving stakeholder demands. Our analysis underscores the need to rethink how models are designed and used for a more effective integration into decision-making processes.

Indexed as

Food SupplyModels, TheoreticalDecision MakingHumansUncertainty

Identifiers

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.