Tracking submediterranean ecotone shifts under climate change scenarios using marcescent oaks as indicators.

The submediterranean is an ecotone distributed across southern Europe and north Africa, marking the transition between temperate and mediterranean climates. This is a remarkable climatic and vegetational dynamic area, with major shifts driven by changes in climate since the Late Quaternary. We explore future range shifts of the submediterranean ecotone caused by climate change using marcescent oaks as a proxy, considering their high prevalence in forests under such conditions. Our results confirm the ongoing dynamism of this ecotone, which is likely to expand its range northwards, where marcescent oaks will overlap Eurosiberian forests dominated by deciduous and temperate species. Conversely, in the southwestern Mediterranean, a loss of suitability is predicted, with remaining suitable habitat only at higher altitudes or along coastal regions, promoting scattered refuge suitable areas. To preserve these forests, further research is needed to assess the future ranges of individual species based on high-resolution models, to plan management and restoration strategies within a context of high disturbance by land use.