ArticleThe lancet. HIV2025
Projecting changes in demographics and causes of death in people with HIV in western Europe from 2025 to 2050: a mathematical modelling study.
Article in The lancet. HIV, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- The economic value of preventing projected sepsis-related deaths among adults in 79 countries, 2000-2023, with projections to 2050: a modelling study.Critical care (London, England) · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
17 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundAntiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up in western Europe has reduced the incidence of AIDS-related conditions, increased life expectancies, and led to an ageing population of people with HIV. We aimed to project cause-specific mortality patterns in western Europe by 2050 in the context of changes in demographics and ART use.
methodsWe used a deterministic compartmental model calibrated in a Bayesian framework. From 2010 to 2023, the model was parameterised and calibrated using epidemiological data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, UNAIDS, and the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration, including information on rates of cause-specific mortality by demographics and CD4 cell counts. The number of deaths and mortality rates were modelled for a status quo scenario (where ART coverage and HIV incidence remained stable) from 2025 to 2050, as well as different scenarios in which various changes to ART coverage and HIV incidence were assumed.
findingsBy 2050, 839 761 (95% credible interval 789 451-860 875) people with HIV are projected to be living in western Europe, with 90% taking ART. The percentage of people with HIV older than 75 years is projected to increase from 8% in 2025 to 24% in 2050. The all-cause mortality rate is estimated to increase from 1·31 (1·25-1·36) per 100 person-years in 2025 to 2·04 (1·95-2·12) in 2050. Between 2010 and 2025, there was an estimated decline in AIDS-related deaths of 44·2% (37·7-50·1). From 2025 to 2050, projected AIDS-related mortality rates are estimated to remain constant at 0·21 per 100 person-years under a status quo scenario. Cardiovascular-related mortality rates are estimated to increase from 0·24 per 100 person-years (0·22-0·25) in 2025 to 0·50 (0·40-0·53) in 2050 and non-AIDS-defining cancers to increase from 0·31 per 100 person-years (0·30-0·32) in 2025 to 0·53 (0·50-0·56) in 2050, becoming the two leading causes of death by 2050 in people with HIV. Over the next 25 years, if there is an increase in ART coverage (reaching 94% in 2030) and a steady decrease in HIV incidence, there are projected to be 15 321 (14 124-16 743) fewer deaths in people with HIV in western Europe.
interpretationNon-AIDS-related deaths are projected to increase over time due to the ageing population of people with HIV offsetting the AIDS-related mortality reduction. Efforts are needed to promote comprehensive care for the ageing HIV population and focus on the health needs of people with HIV across their lifespan.
fundingUS National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism and US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.