Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41209678›Full record

ArticleFuture healthcare journal2025

The NHS waiting list in England must halve to reach waiting time targets.

Richard M Wood, Sebastian S Fox, Lucy E Morgan, Neil S Walton

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Future healthcare journal, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Richard M WoodNHS Bristol, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire Integrated Care Board, Bristol BS1 6AG, United Kingdom.
Sebastian S FoxNHS Bristol, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire Integrated Care Board, Bristol BS1 6AG, United Kingdom.
Lucy E MorganNHS The Strategy Unit, Birmingham B2 4BJ, United Kingdom.
Neil S WaltonDurham University Business School, Durham, DH1 3LB, United Kingdom.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

It is a constitutional requirement in England's NHS that 92% of patients awaiting consultant-led elective treatment must be waiting no longer than 18 weeks. This target was last met in November 2015. Since then, waiting times have lengthened, with only 58.9% of the 7.5 million who were waiting at year-end 2024 waiting under 18 weeks. The government has pledged to restore the 92% standard by 2029 - the end of the current parliament. While it is known that the waiting list must reduce, the size that it must reduce to has not before been formally investigated. Leveraging a recently published mathematical framework for modelling NHS waiting lists, we find that the waiting list must be more than halved to 3.4 million to reach the 92% standard. Furthermore, we reveal the unequal distribution of this challenge, with different regions and specialties requiring disproportionately more or less resources than others to reach their required waiting list targets.

Indexed as

Elective careModellingPlanned careWaiting listWaiting times

Identifiers

PMID41209678
PMCPMC12590267

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.