ArticleEuropean spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society2026
Prediction of Cobb angle progression in female patients with mild-to-moderate adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.
Article in European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Prediction models for curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a systematic review with exploratory meta-analysis of discrimination.BMC musculoskeletal disorders · 2026Pooled it
- Radiographic and systemic predictors of persistent low back pain following total hip arthroplasty: roles of relative pelvic version and osteosarcopenia.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2026Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
purposeTo develop regression models for predicting adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) progression using machine learning with clinical and radiographic data.
methodsWe included female patients aged 10 to 13 years diagnosed with AIS at our institution between 2007 and 2020. Only those with mild-to-moderate AIS (initial Cobb angle of 10°–40°) were analyzed. The objective variables were the Cobb angle at 1and 2 years later and at the last visit. A stacking regression metamodel with 5-fold cross-validation was developed using age, bracing, first menstruation, height, weight, Cobb angle at first visit, curve pattern, Risser sign, and kyphosis. Model performance was evaluated by mean absolute error (MAE) and R2 with internal validation by 1000 bootstrap samples.
resultsWe analyzed 201 patients. The median Cobb angle at the first visit was 27.0° (interquartile range, 21–32), and the median observation period was 44.0 months. The developed models achieved: MAE, 4.22 (standard deviation [SD]: 0.25), R2, 0.73 (SD: 0.03) for the 1-year Cobb angle prediction; MAE, 5.24 (SD: 0.34), R2, 0.67 (SD: 0.04) for the 2-year Cobb angle prediction; and MAE, 5.99 (SD: 0.35), R2, 0.73 (SD: 0.03) for the prediction at the last visit.
conclusionThe 1-year prediction outperformed previously reported models with shorter follow-up. Despite an extended observation period of nearly 4 years, prediction accuracy at the last follow-up remained clinically valuable, supporting the long-term reliability of the model.
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