Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41207322›Full record

ArticleThe lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology2026

Time trends in mortality from heart failure and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in people with and without diabetes: a multi-national population-based study.

Joanna Y Gong, Jedidiah I Morton, Lei Chen, Julian W Sacre, Bendix Carstensen, Edward W Gregg, Meda E Pavkov, Martti Arffman, Gillian L Booth, Jonne G Ter Braake and 18 more

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Article in The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Review
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  5. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

28 authors.

Joanna Y GongDepartment of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Diabetes and Endocrinology, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Endocrinology and Diabetes, Western Health, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Medicine, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Translational Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Electronic address: joanna.gong@baker.edu.au.
Jedidiah I MortonDepartment of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Lei ChenDepartment of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Julian W SacreDepartment of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Bendix CarstensenClinical Epidemiology, Steno Diabetes Centre Copenhagen, Herlev, Denmark.
Edward W GreggDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; School of Population Health, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dublin, Ireland.
Meda E PavkovDivision of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Martti ArffmanDepartment of Healthcare and Social Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland.
Gillian L BoothDepartment of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Jonne G Ter BraakeHealth Campus The Hague-Public Health & Primary Care, Leiden University Medical Center, The Hague, Netherlands.
Luan Manh ChuProvincial Research Data Services, Alberta Health Services, Edmonton AB, Canada; Alberta SPOR SUPPORT Unit, Data and Research Services, Alberta Health Services, Edmonton AB, Canada.
Kelly FleetwoodUsher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Sandrine Fosse-EdorhDepartment of Non-Communicable Diseases and Trauma, Santé Publique France, Saint-Maurice, France.
Milda GarbuvieneCenter of Health Information, Institute of Hygiene, Vilnius, Lithuania.
Marie GuionDepartment of Non-Communicable Diseases and Trauma, Santé Publique France, Saint-Maurice, France.
Kyoung Hwa HaDepartment of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; Institute for Innovation in Digital Healthcare, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea.
Padma KaulDepartment of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; Canadian VIGOUR Center, Edmonton, AB, Canada; Alberta Diabetes Institute, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
Calvin KeDepartment of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Medicine, Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Ilmo KeskimäkiDepartment of Healthcare and Social Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland.
Dae Jung KimDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, South Korea.
Tinne LaurbergSteno Diabetes Center Aarhus, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus N, Denmark; Department of Pathology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus N, Denmark.
Agus SalimDepartment of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Henrik StøvringSteno Diabetes Center Aarhus, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus N, Denmark; Department of Biomedicine, Arhaus University, Aarhaus, Denmark.
Rimke C VosHealth Campus The Hague-Public Health & Primary Care, Leiden University Medical Center, The Hague, Netherlands.
Sarah H WildUsher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Spiros FourlanosDepartment of Diabetes and Endocrinology, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Medicine, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Australian Centre for Accelerating Diabetes Innovations (ACADI), The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Jonathan E ShawDepartment of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Life Sciences, La Trobe University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Dianna J MaglianoDepartment of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.

Funding

Intramural CDC HHS CC999999
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundContemporary trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) cause-specific mortality by diabetes status are inadequately described. We examined trends by diabetes status in coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease, and heart failure mortality, and mortality rate ratios (people with diabetes versus those without diabetes) across nine high-income jurisdictions.

methodsWe assembled CVD cause-specific mortality data from nine administrative datasets (Europe [n=5], Australia [n=1], Canada [n=2], and South Korea [n=1]), spanning 2000-23. Using Poisson regression, we estimated mortality rates by diabetes status and mortality rate ratios.

findingsThere were 2·92 million CVD deaths over 1·30 billion person-years of follow-up. In all jurisdictions and in both people with and without diabetes, the total CVD and CHD mortality rates fell across the observed time period. The 5-year percent changes in CHD mortality ranged from -11·5% to -32·3%. Reductions in heart failure mortality were smaller than those for CHD mortality (except in Scotland) and smaller than those for cerebrovascular mortality (except in Scotland and Denmark). Heart failure mortality increased in Ontario, Canada. The excess CHD mortality associated with diabetes (mortality rate ratio ~2·0) fell in three of nine jurisdictions and was stable or uncertain in the remainder. No jurisdiction had a fall in excess heart failure mortality associated with diabetes.

interpretationDeclines in heart failure mortality in both people with and without diabetes were less marked than were declines in CHD and cerebrovascular disease mortality in most jurisdictions. Heart failure mortality rate ratios have not decreased. A greater focus on reducing heart failure mortality in people with and without diabetes might be required.

fundingUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Program, Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Program.

Indexed as

AtherosclerosisCardiovascular DiseasesDiabetes MellitusHeart FailureAgedAustraliaCanadaEuropeFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRepublic of Korea

Identifiers

PMID41207322
PMCPMC13244387

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.