ArticleAnnals of gastroenterological surgery2025
Risk Evaluation of the NCD Risk Calculator for Open Pancreaticoduodenectomy in Elderly Patients: A Validation Study.
Article in Annals of gastroenterological surgery, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Achievement of the Ideal Outcome After Pancreatectomy for Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Is Associated With Earlier Initiation and Higher Completion Rates of Adjuvant Chemotherapy and Improved Long-Term Survival.Annals of gastroenterological surgery · 2026Article
- Prediction of Long-Term Prognosis in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Using the National Clinical Database Risk Calculator.Annals of gastroenterological surgery · 2026Article
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10 authors.
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Abstract
Background: There is no clear indication for surgery in pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) for the elderly patients. The aim of this study was to use real-world data to investigate the usefulness of preoperative risk assessment with the risk calculator available in the National Clinical Database (NCD) in Japan. Methods: A retrospective analysis of 311 patients aged ≥ 65 years who underwent PD was performed. In addition to background factors, preoperative predicted incidence rates calculated with the risk calculator, as well as visceral fat analysis items, were analyzed. Patients with (1) serious postoperative complications, (2) a decline in postoperative activities of daily living (ADL), or (3) discharge to a place other than home were defined as having a poor postoperative course. All patients were randomly assigned to the training cohort ( Results: Comparisons of patient characteristics revealed no differences between the training and validation cohorts. In the training cohort, multivariate analysis revealed that "Predicted incidence of postoperative ADL decline" of ≥ 44.8% (OR 4.68; Conclusion: A "Predicted incidence of postoperative ADL decline" and "Predicted incidence of Clavien-Dindo grade IV or higher" in the NCD risk calculator were useful predictors of a poor postoperative course after PD.
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