ArticlePopulation health metrics2025
Chronic respiratory diseases risk during the COVID-19 pandemic: an integrated modelling approach based on hospital records across 30 countries.
Article in Population health metrics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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8 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundGlobally, there are significant inequalities in risk for chronic respiratory disease patients with COVID-19 (CRD-COVID), and a comprehensive understanding of its determinants and their interactions is needed. This study quantified individual, environmental, and viral risks that impact hospital admission severity and survival outcomes in CRD-COVID patients utilizing multinational hospital records.
methodsWe analysed data on CRD-COVID from the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) dataset, covering January 2020 to July 2022 across 30 countries. The cohort included COVID-19 patients with asthma (Asthma, n = 36,365), chronic pulmonary disease (CPD, n = 36,332), and asthma-CPD overlap (ACO, n = 16,061). We matched these patients with their prehospital environmental and viral risk factors. The primary outcome was admission severity, which we assessed using generalised linear mixed models (GLMM), and GPBoost with Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) algorithm. The secondary outcome was 28-day mortality, evaluated using Cox regression and K-medoids clustering.
resultsThe rates of severe admissions and 28-day mortality were 33.7% and 16.4% for the asthma cohort, 30.1% and 31.6% for the CPD cohort, and 15.9% and 25.8% for the ACO cohort, respectively. Common key risk factors impacting admission severity in CRD-COVID patients include age, sex, comorbidities, humidity, precipitation, and O
conclusionThe impact of prehospital individual, environmental, and viral risk on the severity of CRD-COVID patients was heterogeneous. Older people exposed to low humidity were at greatest risk.
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