ArticlePloS one2025
Variant patterns and influence of inter-regional travel during the SARS-CoV-2 expansion in South Africa.
Article in PloS one, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
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Abstract
We evaluated the dynamic impacts of three types of human mobilities-provincial inflows, cross-district flows, and within-district flows-on daily reported COVID-19 cases for 2020. Using a structural equation modeling approach, we conducted regressions on dynamic panel datasets. Our findings indicate that these three types of mobility influenced daily new COVID-19 case numbers in distinct and sometimes overlapping ways during the early stages of the epidemic. Within-district flows played a particularly significant role in increasing cases during the spreading stage. During the epidemic stage, we observed a sustained but gradually declining impact of within-district mobility on daily new cases, potentially highlighting the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In addition, signs of social distancing fatigue were evident. Our model further shows that the first and most stringent lockdown policy significantly curtailed human mobility, whereas the second, less restrictive lockdown had negligible impact on human mobility.
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