ArticleBMJ global health2025
Association between timeliness of detection, notification and response and the magnitude, severity and duration of disease outbreaks: a retrospective review of 84 outbreaks in Uganda, 2017-2022.
Article in BMJ global health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Completion of early response actions accounted for most elapsed time across the 7-1-7 pathway in Sierra Leone, 2023-2025.Public health in practice (Oxford, England) · 2026Article
- Resilience of health systems in Africa to infectious disease shocks: A qualitative evidence synthesis.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
introductionTimely detection, notification and response are critical for mitigating outbreak impact, yet evidence linking timeliness to public health outcomes is limited.
methodsWe hypothesised that timely detection, notification and response are associated with a decrease in the magnitude (ie, cumulative cases and deaths), severity (ie, case fatality ratio) and outbreak duration (ie, days from outbreak start to end). Using data from 84 outbreaks reported in Uganda between 2017 and 2022, we calculated time from outbreak start to detection, detection to notification and notification to initial response. We used regression analysis to measure associations between timeliness indicators and outbreak outcomes, controlling for disease categories.
resultsLonger time to detection was associated with an increase in cases (effect size (ES) = 1.092; p=0.010) and deaths (ES=1.106; p<0.001) and with a longer duration (ES=1.032, p=0.019). A longer time to notification was associated with a lower number of cases (ES=0.935; p=0.002) and deaths (ES=0.961; p=0.024). Time to initial response showed no significant association with any outcome.
conclusionTimely detection is associated with fewer cases, deaths and shorter outbreaks. Outbreaks with high impact potential (ie, more cases and deaths) are notified faster, possibly reflecting a heightened sense of urgency among health workers. The findings highlight the importance of frameworks like 7-1-7 in enhancing outbreak response timeliness and improving public health outcomes.
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