ArticleFrontiers in public health2025
Comparative analysis and forecast of spinal cord injury burden in BRICS countries (1990-2021): insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: As major emerging economies, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) face a significant and distinct burden of spinal cord injury (SCI). We systematically assessed trends in the burden of SCI and its leading causes from 1990 to 2021 and forecasted trends to 2031, providing evidence to optimize prevention and control strategies. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), we calculated the age-standardized incidence and prevalence rate (ASIR, ASPR) of SCI in the BRICS, along with the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Furthermore, we analyzed the etiological composition of the SCI burden and developed an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast its trends from 2022 to 2031. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the absolute number of SCI cases rose in all BRICS countries except Russia; however, age-standardized rates (ASRs) fell consistently (EAPC range: -2.15 to -0.13). South Africa demonstrated the most substantial reductions (AAPC: ASIR -1.59, ASPR -1.93), while China showed the modest declines (-0.23 and -0.09, respectively). The burden of SCI varied substantially by age and sex. Males bore a consistently higher burden, with peak risks shifting from younger to older females. The peak number of cases occurred earlier (20-35 years) in Brazil, Russia, and South Africa, but was notably delayed in China and India (50-54 years). The leading causes of SCI across the BRICS included falls (70% of cases in India), road injuries, and self-harm and interpersonal violence (35% of cases in South Africa). Based on ARIMA modeling, a continued decline in ASRs is projected for all member countries over the coming decade. Conclusion: The burden of SCI in the BRICS countries is influenced by demographic, socioeconomic, and policy-related factors. Although ASRs have shown improvement, the absolute number of cases continues to grow. This trend necessitates tailored preventive strategies that address specific age, sex, and etiological factors, supported by enhanced international health cooperation, to mitigate the global burden of SCI.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.