Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41178353›Full record

ArticleBrain : a journal of neurology2026

Estimating the time course of biomarker changes in Alzheimer's disease.

Lars Lau Raket, Alexa Pichet Binette, Niklas Mattsson-Carlgren, Shorena Janelidze, Henrik Zetterberg, Nicholas J Ashton, Kaj Blennow, Erik Stomrud, Sebastian Palmqvist, Oskar Hansson

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Brain : a journal of neurology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Lars Lau RaketClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University, Lund 223 62, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0001-7099-2314
Alexa Pichet BinetteClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University, Lund 223 62, Sweden.
Niklas Mattsson-CarlgrenClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University, Lund 223 62, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-8885-7724
Shorena JanelidzeClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University, Lund 223 62, Sweden.
Henrik ZetterbergDepartment of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, the Sahlgrenska Academy at the University of Gothenburg, Mölndal 431 39, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0003-3930-4354
Nicholas J AshtonDepartment of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, the Sahlgrenska Academy at the University of Gothenburg, Mölndal 431 39, Sweden.
Kaj BlennowDepartment of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, the Sahlgrenska Academy at the University of Gothenburg, Mölndal 431 39, Sweden.
Erik StomrudClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University, Lund 223 62, Sweden.
Sebastian PalmqvistClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University, Lund 223 62, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-9267-1930
Oskar HanssonClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University, Lund 223 62, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0001-8467-7286

Funding

Prospective validation and implementation of high-performing blood biomarkers and digital cognitive tests for detection of Alzheimer's disease in specialist memory clinic and primary care settingsR01AG083740 · NIA · LUNDS UNIVERSITET · PI Sebastian Palmqvist · 2023 to 2026
$1.9M
Alzheimer's Association SG-23-1061717Alzheimer's Association ZEN24-1069572Cure Alzheimer's fundERA PerMed ERAPERMED2021-184European Research Council ADG-101053962European Research Council ADG-101096455GHR FoundationGovernment of Sweden 2022-Projekt0080Government of Sweden ALFGBG-71320Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation 2022-0231Konung Gustaf V:s och Drottning Victorias FrimurarestiftelseLund UniversityNIA NIH HHS R01 AG083740NIA NIH HHS R01AG083740Parkinsonfonden 1412/22Regionalt Forskningsstöd 2022-1259Rönström Family FoundationSkånes universitetssjukhus 2020-O000028Swedish Alzheimer Foundation AF-980907Swedish Brain Foundation FO2021-0293Swedish Research Council 2019-02397Swedish Research Council 2022-00775Swedish Research Council 2022-01018Swedish Research Council 2023-00356
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Recent advancements in biomarkers have transformed Alzheimer's disease (AD) diagnosis from being purely symptom-based to include biological criteria. With new treatments targeting the core biology of Alzheimer's disease, understanding the timeline of biological changes is crucial as the disease progresses over decades. Longitudinal data from amyloid-beta (Aβ) PET and cognitive tests [Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-cog)] from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (n = 1448) and BioFINDER (n = 2088) were used to stage patients against an estimated continuous disease timeline (predicted time since Aβ-PET positivity). The estimated timeline was validated by comparing correlations with unseen biomarkers and cognitive measures against alternative staging approaches. Trajectories for plasma, CSF, MRI and PET biomarkers, measuring Aβ, tau and neurodegeneration, were mapped along this Alzheimer's disease continuum. The proposed staging approach was found to produce stronger correlations with unseen cognitive measures and biomarkers compared to alternative staging methods, including amyloid and tau PET clocks (all pairwise P < 0.05). Findings related to biomarker trajectories were highly consistent across cohorts. The period from Aβ-PET positivity to end-stage Alzheimer's disease dementia (MMSE = 0) was estimated at 20-25 years, with a presymptomatic phase of 7-11 years. CSF Aβ42/Aβ40 became abnormal about a year before Aβ-PET positivity, CSF phosphorylated-tau (p-tau)231, p-tau217 and plasma phosphorylated/neuritic plaque-tau217 1-3 years after, and tau-PET about 8 years after. Neurodegenerative biomarkers, such as hippocampal volume, became clearly abnormal in early dementia stages, 14-16 years after Aβ-PET positivity. The progression from initial biomarker abnormality to severe Alzheimer's disease spans two decades. Disease progression modelling elucidates the evolution of AD biomarkers and cognition, highlighting the relative timing of biomarker abnormalities. These models can determine disease stages, aiding in prognosis and the evaluation of disease-modifying treatments.

Indexed as

Alzheimer DiseaseAgedAged, 80 and overAmyloid beta-PeptidesBiomarkersDisease ProgressionFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMagnetic Resonance ImagingMalePositron-Emission Tomographytau ProteinsTime FactorsAmyloid beta-PeptidesBiomarkerstau ProteinsAlzheimer’s diseaseamyloid-betabiomarkersCSFdisease progressionPET

Identifiers

PMID41178353
PMCPMC13232038

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.