ArticleEuropean psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists2025
Longitudinal PTSD trajectories before and after the October 7, 2023, terror attacks: A nationwide study of Israeli adults.
Article in European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Psychiatric outcomes in the first two years after the October 7 attacks: a systematic review of posttraumatic stress, anxiety, depression, and addiction-related outcomes.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2026Pooled it
- War-Related Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms During the First Two Postpartum Years: The Moderating Role of Childhood Adversity.Stress and health : journal of the International Society for the Investigation of Stress · 2026Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundExisting research on post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) development over time covers brief periods predominantly among military personnel, rather than civilians, and baseline measurements from before traumatic experiences are rarely available. This longitudinal study examined PTSD trajectories among Israeli civilians before and after the October 7, 2023, terror attack, exploring their associations with current and previous trauma.
methodsData included 1,231 Israeli Jewish adults from a quasi-representative sample surveyed at four time points: January 2018, April 2022, December 2023, and March 2024. Participants completed self-report measures, including the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5), exposure to the October 7 attack and subsequent war, and trauma in childhood and adulthood. Latent growth mixture modeling identified PTSD trajectories.
resultsFour trajectories were identified: resilience (70.4%), trauma recovery (9.4%), trauma vulnerability (16.8%), and chronic PTSD (3.5%). The chronic PTSD group exhibited persistently high symptoms, associated with greater childhood trauma and war-related exposure. The trauma vulnerability group showed low-medium pre-attack PTSD levels that escalated post-attack, associated with higher war-related stressors. The trauma recovery group had high pre-attack PTSD severity related to high trauma exposure, but showed significant symptom reduction post-attack. DISCUSSION: This study, the first to examine PTSD trajectories in civilians after large-scale trauma, highlights diverse impacts. Most participants demonstrated resilience, while some exhibited chronic symptoms. Two trajectories - trauma vulnerability and trauma recovery - were event-responsive, suggesting that collective trauma can both exacerbate and paradoxically alleviate symptoms. Findings emphasize the need for targeted interventions and suggest future research using machine learning to refine PTSD trajectory prediction.
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