ArticleBMC public health2025
Modeling mumps incidence in China: spatiotemporal clusters and evolving risk factors (2005-2020).
Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and socioeconomic determinants of syphilis incidence in Xining, Northwest China: a geospatial analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Multimethod geospatial modeling of life expectancy determinants in China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Modeling the drivers of mumps incidence in China: a spatial multi-method analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
backgroundMumps remains a major public health challenge in China, exhibiting distinct seasonal peaks in spring and notable spatial heterogeneity in incidence patterns. These spatiotemporal characteristics necessitate advanced analytical methods to identify driving factors and inform targeted intervention strategies.
methodsWe integrated space-time scanning statistics and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) to analyze mumps incidence across China (2005-2020). This approach overcomes the limitations of traditional methods by simultaneously assessing economic development, education level, population structure, and healthcare resources factors.
resultsNational incidence exhibited a fluctuating decline from 27.60 (2005) to 10.09 per 100,000 (2020), peaking in 2012 (38.49 per 100,000). Space-time scanning identified persistent high-risk clusters in western China and transient clusters in northeastern regions. GTWR modeling revealed significant spatiotemporal variations in risk factors: illiteracy rate and population density showed transitioning impacts reflecting improved health education, while household size effects strengthened, emphasizing close-contact transmission. Healthcare resources exhibited opposing effects, being protective in eastern regions but risk-enhancing in western areas. GDP per capita demonstrated protective effects in western and southeastern China but was associated with elevated risk elsewhere.
conclusionsThe findings underscore the need for regionally tailored prevention strategies and precision interventions accounting for local socioeconomic contexts. This study provides a methodological framework for spatiotemporal disease surveillance and evidence-based policy-making to reduce mumps transmission in China.
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