ArticleEuropean journal of medical research2025
The global burden and trends of esophageal cancer caused by smoking among men from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2040: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 2021.
Article in European journal of medical research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Tobacco-driven digestive disease burden: A China-US comparative analysis, 1990-2035.Tobacco induced diseases · 2026Article
- The multidimensional regulatory network of the PD‑1/PD‑L1 axis in the esophageal squamous cell carcinoma microenvironment: Implications for novel combination therapies and precision immunotherapy (Review).Oncology reports · 2026Review
- Ischemic Heart Disease and the Epidemiologic Transition: Progress without Reduction in Global Burden.Discoveries (Craiova, Romania)Review
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10 authors.
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Abstract
introductionEsophageal cancer (EC) ranks 7th globally in cancer mortality, with smoking being a major preventable risk factor, particularly for squamous cell carcinoma predominant in Asia. This study quantifies the global burden of smoking-attributable EC among males using 2021 Global Burden of Disease data (1990-2021) and projects trends to 2040.
methodData on deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for global burden of smoking-attributable EC among males were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2021, along with the corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We analyzed with Joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort modeling for risk stratification, decomposition analysis, and Bayesian prediction.
resultsGlobal smoking-attributable EC deaths and DALYs among males decreased, concentrated in middle-to-high SDI regions. Age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) declined significantly, with sharpest reductions in medium-SDI regions. East Asia bore disproportionate burden in China and Mongolia. Critical inflection occurred in 2004 by joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis from 1990 to 2021. Mortality peak at 80-90 years and disability peak at 60-80 years. Decomposition analysis showed population growth and aging increased burden, offset by epidemiological improvements. Predictive analysis indicated stable-to-declining ASRs through 2040, contingent on sustained tobacco control in high-risk regions.
conclusionThe analysis indicated a global downward trend in EC attributable to smoking among males. While absolute burdens rise due to demographic pressures, declining ASRs reflect tobacco control progress. The 2004 inflection underscores policy impact, and East Asia's outsized burden necessitates targeted interventions. Our research underscores the profound influence of high BMI on EC attributable to smoking among males and provides a research foundation for future public health decision-making.
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