ArticleEuropean spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society2026
One-year body mass index change and subsequent risk of lumbar disc herniation: a population-based cohort study.
Article in European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Answer to the Letter to the Editor of T. Xu, et al. concerning "One-year body mass index change and subsequent risk of lumbar disc herniation: a population-based cohort study" by S. Masuda, et al. (Eur Spine J; doi: 10.1007/s00586-025-09508-2).European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
purposeThis study aimed to investigate the association between one-year changes in body mass index (BMI) and subsequent risk of developing lumbar disc herniation (LDH).
methodsA population-based cohort study was conducted using a Japanese administrative claims database, including 4,121,849 individuals with no prior history of LDH who underwent annual health checkups. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model with restricted cubic splines was used to analyze the dose-response associations between a one-year change in BMI and the risk of development of LDH, adjusting for potential confounders. To assess for effect modification, a subgroup analysis was performed, stratifying participants by baseline BMI categories: <18.5, 18.5 to < 25, 25 to < 30, ≥30.0 kg/m
resultsDuring the one-year follow-up, 15,099 individuals developed LDH (1-year risk, 0.38%; 95% confidence interval, 0.37 to 0.39). A restricted spline curve showed that a greater increase in BMI was associated with a higher risk of developing LDH, and this risk increased linearly for BMI changes exceeding 2%. In contrast, the subgroup analysis revealed that among individuals with a BMI ≥ 30 kg/m
conclusionOne-year changes in BMI are significantly associated with the risk of developing LDH, but this relationship is dependent on an individual's baseline BMI. This finding can contribute to the development of preventive strategies such as weight management and exercise therapy for LDH.
Indexed as
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Registered trials
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