Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41165252›Full record

ArticleProteins2026

Assessment of Nucleic Acid Structure Prediction in CASP16.

Rachael C Kretsch, Alissa M Hummer, Shujun He, Rongqing Yuan, Jing Zhang, Thomas Karagianes, Qian Cong, Andriy Kryshtafovych, Rhiju Das

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proteins, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
36citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

36 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Machine Learning for RNA-Targeting Drug Design.Journal of chemical information and modeling · 2026
    Review
  7. De novo design of RNA pseudoknots with deep learning.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Spectral Graph Features for Reference-free RNA 3D Quality Assessment.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Rachael C KretschBiophysics Program, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6935-518X
Alissa M HummerHoward Hughes Medical Institute, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3023-2588
Shujun HeHoward Hughes Medical Institute, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1010-536X
Rongqing YuanEugene McDermott Center for Human Growth and Development, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5917-4505
Jing ZhangEugene McDermott Center for Human Growth and Development, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4190-3065
Thomas KaragianesEterna Massive Open Laboratory, Stanford, California, USA.
Qian CongEugene McDermott Center for Human Growth and Development, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8909-0414
Andriy KryshtafovychGenome Center, University of California, Davis, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5066-7178
Rhiju DasBiophysics Program, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-7497-0972

Funding

Next-generation computational/chemical methods for complex RNA structuresR35GM122579 · NIGMS · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI Rhiju Das · 2017 to 2026
$7.2M
A deep learning and experiment integrated platform for stable mRNA vaccines developmentR01AI165433 · NIAID · TEXAS ENGINEERING EXPERIMENT STATION · PI qing sun · 2022 to 2026
$1.8M
Howard Hughes Medical InstituteNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious DiseasesNational Science Foundation 2330652NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM122579NIH HHS NIGMS R01GM100482NIH HHS R01 AI165433NIH HHS R35 GM122579School of Medicine, Stanford UniversityStanford Bio-XUniversity of Texas Southwestern Medical CenterWelch Foundation I-2095-20220331
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Consistently accurate 3D nucleic acid structure prediction would facilitate studies of the diverse RNA and DNA molecules underlying life. In CASP16, blind predictions for 42 targets canvassing a full array of nucleic acid functions, from dopamine binding by DNA to formation of elaborate RNA nanocages, were submitted by 65 groups from 46 different labs worldwide. In contrast to concurrent protein structure predictions, performance on nucleic acids was generally poor, with no predictions of previously unseen natural RNA structures achieving TM-scores above 0.8. Even though automated server performance has improved, all top-performing groups were human expert predictors: Vfold, GuangzhouRNA-human, and KiharaLab. Good performance on one template-free modeling target (OLE RNA) and accurate global secondary structure prediction suggested that structural information can be extracted from multiple sequence alignments. However, 3D accuracy generally appeared to depend on the availability of closely related 3D structure templates, and predictions still did not achieve consistent recovery of pseudoknots, singlet Watson-Crick-Franklin pairs, non-canonical pairs, or tertiary motifs like A-minor interactions. For the first time, blind predictions of nucleic acid interactions with small molecules, proteins, and other nucleic acids could be assessed in CASP16. As with nucleic acid monomers, prediction accuracy for nucleic acid complexes was generally poor unless 3D templates were available. Accounting for template availability, there has not been a notable increase in nucleic acid modeling accuracy between previous blind challenges and CASP16.

Indexed as

Computational BiologyDNANucleic Acid ConformationRNASoftwareHumansModels, MolecularDNARNACASP16deep learningDNA structuremultiple sequence alignmentnucleic‐acid ligand structurenucleic‐acid protein complex structureRNA structurestructure prediction

Identifiers

PMID41165252
PMCPMC13185081

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.