Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41165245›Full record

SynthesisInfluenza and other respiratory viruses2025

Consolidating Estimates of the Incubation Period for Omicron Subvariants From the Literature and Their Comparison to the Estimate From Taiwan: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis, September 2024.

Andrei R Akhmetzhanov, Hao-Yuan Cheng, Gillian Cheng, Jonathan Dushoff

Abstract readSystematic ReviewMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Andrei R AkhmetzhanovGlobal Health Program, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3269-7351
Hao-Yuan ChengEpidemic Intelligence Center, Taiwan Centers for Diseases Control, Taipei, Taiwan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7960-6862
Gillian ChengInstitute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0812-6754
Jonathan DushoffDepartment of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.

Funding

National Science and Technology Council, Taiwan 113-2314-B-002-181-MY3Taiwan Centers for Disease Control YK1120 60
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic was characterized by waves driven by distinct viral variants, including the Omicron variant, which emerged in October 2021. To formulate effective public health strategies and understand disease spread, accurate estimates of the incubation periods of these variants are important. Existing estimates often conflict due to biases caused by epidemic dynamics and selective inclusion of cases. Using data from Taiwan, where disease incidence remained low and contact tracing was comprehensive during the first months of the Omicron outbreak, this study aims to accurately estimate the incubation period of the Omicron (BA.1) variant incubation period.

methodsWe reviewed the first 100 Omicron BA.1 symptomatic cases reported in Taiwan's contact-tracing records (between December 2021 and January 2022). Of these, 69 had usable information. Data on exposure and symptom onset dates were fitted with the generalized gamma. A systematic search and meta-analysis on incubation periods for Omicron BA.1/2/4/5 subvariants was then conducted to derive pooled mean estimates for the incubation periods of each subvariant.

resultsThe mean incubation period was estimated at 3.5 days (95% credible interval: 3.0-4.0 days), with no clear differences based on vaccination status or age. This estimate aligned closely with the pooled mean of 3.7 days (3.3-4.0 days) for Omicron BA.1 and of 3.7 days (2.3-5.1 days) for all considered Omicron variants BA.1/2 and BA.5.

conclusionsOmicron subvariants have a relatively shorter incubation period compared to previous SARS-CoV-2 variants. A continuous update of incubation period estimates, based on available data, is necessary to develop guidelines that can reduce the socioeconomic costs associated with COVID-19.

Indexed as

COVID-19Infectious Disease Incubation PeriodSARS-CoV-2Contact TracingHumansPandemicsTaiwanCOVID‐19incubation periodmeta‐analysisOmicronsystematic review

Identifiers

PMID41165245
PMCPMC12573278

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.