Machine Learning Model to Predict Iodine Contrast Media-Related Acute Adverse Reaction in Patients Without a Similar History for Enhanced CT.

introductionThe objective is to develop and compare risk prediction models for Iodine Contrast Media (ICM)-related Acute Adverse Reactions (AAR) in patients without a prior history of such reactions, and to construct a nomogram based on the superior model.

methods546 patients without a history of ICM-related AAR who underwent ICM administration during CT contrast-enhanced scan were retrospectively enrolled, and divided into training (n=234), test (n=101), and external validation (n=211) sets. Clinical, medication information, and environmental factors were collected. Features were selected by univariate logistical analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and four Machine Learning (ML) models, including Logistic Regression (LR), decision tree, k-nearst neighbors and linear support vector classification were used to construct ICM-related AAR risk prediction models were developed and evaluated using AUC, accuracy and F1 score. A nomogram was constructed based on the superior model.

resultsHistory of ICM exposure and allergy due to other factors, hypertension, type of ICMs, ICM dose, oral metformin, hyperglycaemia, and glomerular filtration rate were selected for modeling (all p < 0.05). The LR model demonstrated superior performance, with AUCs of 0.894 (test set) and 0.814 (external validation), and was used to construct a clinically applicable nomogram. DISCUSSION: The LR-based model effectively predicts ICM-related AAR risk using readily available clinical variables. It offers a practical tool for identifying high-risk patients prior to ICM administration, facilitating preventive measures.

conclusionLR can predict the risk of ICM-related AAR well in patients without a history of ICM-related AAR, and the corresponding nomogram is provided.