Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41162416›Full record

ArticleNPJ breast cancer2025

Predicting short- to long-term breast cancer risk from longitudinal mammographic screening history.

Xin Wang, Tao Tan, Yuan Gao, Ruisheng Su, Jonas Teuwen, Jaap Kroes, Tianyu Zhang, Anna D'Angelo, Luyi Han, Caroline A Drukker and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ breast cancer, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Xin WangDepartment of Radiology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, 1066 CX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9619-7503
Tao TanFaculty of Applied Sciences, Macao Polytechnic University, 999078, Macao, China. taotanjs@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5403-0887
Yuan GaoDepartment of Radiology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, 1066 CX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6326-129X
Ruisheng SuErasmus Medical Center, Erasmus University, 3015 GD, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Jonas TeuwenDepartment of Radiation Oncology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, 1066 CX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Jaap KroesScreenPoint Medical, Nijmegen, 6525 EC, The Netherlands.
Tianyu ZhangDepartment of Radiology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, 1066 CX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9891-6874
Anna D'AngeloDepartment of Radiology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, 1066 CX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Luyi HanDepartment of Radiology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, 1066 CX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4046-2763
Caroline A DrukkerDepartment of Surgical Oncology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, 1066 CX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Marjanka K SchmidtDivision of Molecular Pathology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, 1066 CX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2228-429X
Regina Beets-TanDepartment of Radiology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, 1066 CX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Nico KarssemeijerDepartment of Medical Imaging, Radboud University Medical Center, 6500 HB, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Ritse MannDepartment of Radiology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, 1066 CX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8111-1930

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Breast cancer (BC) risk assessment aims to enhance individualized screening and prevention strategies. While recent deep learning (DL) models based on mammography have shown promise in short-term risk prediction, they primarily rely on single-time-point (STP) exams, ignoring temporal changes in breast tissue from sequence exams. We present the Multi-Time Point Breast Cancer Risk Model (MTP-BCR), a novel DL approach that integrates traditional risk factors and longitudinal mammography data to capture subtle tissue changes indicative of future malignancy. Using a large in-house dataset with 171,168 mammograms from 9133 women, MTP-BCR achieved superior performance in 10-year risk prediction, with an AUC of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.78-0.82) at the patient level, outperforming STP-based and traditional risk models. External validation on the CSAW-CC dataset confirmed its robustness. Further analysis demonstrates the advantages of the MTP-BCR method in diverse populations. MTP-BCR also excels in risk stratification and offers heatmaps to enhance clinical interpretability.

Identifiers

PMID41162416
PMCPMC12572377

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.