ArticleNature communications2025
Dynamic clinical trial success rates for drugs in the 21st century.
Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Big Data and Artificial Intelligence in Cancer Drug Discovery: Promise, Challenges, and Emerging Opportunities.Cancers · 2026Review
- The molecular similarity landscape of preclinical cancer models to patient tumors.JCI insight · 2026Article
- AI-based augmentation of oncology clinical trials.Nature reviews. Clinical oncology · 2026Review
- Lack of Differences in the Pharmacokinetics of Therapeutic Monoclonal Antibodies Between Japanese and Non-Japanese Individuals.Journal of clinical pharmacology · 2026Review
- Translational assessment instruments for preclinical to first-in-human decision-making: a scoping review.Journal of translational medicine · 2026Article
- A Machine Vision-Guided Microphysiological Platform With Automated Microfluidics Enables Longitudinal Biomarker Monitoring and Emulation of Translationally Relevant Exposure Scenarios.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2026Article
- Tumor-Specific Success Probabilities and Factors Associated With Phase III Trials in Oncology Drug Development.Clinical and translational science · 2026Article
- Drug repurposing against viral infections (2020-2025): clinical trials, computational strategies, and therapeutic interventions.Inflammopharmacology · 2026Review
- Sepsis modelling: current approaches and organ-on-chip perspectives.EBioMedicine · 2026Review
- The Virtual Biotech: A Multi-Agent AI Framework for Therapeutic Discovery and Development.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Artificial intelligence-driven drug discovery: a deep learning paradigm shift in pharmaceutical research and development.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2026Review
- Diffusion Models at the Drug Discovery Frontier: A Review on Generating Small Molecules Versus Therapeutic Peptides.Biology · 2025Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
19 authors.
Funding
Abstract
In clinical drug development, two fundamental questions must be addressed: what is the success rate of drugs in clinical trial; how does such rate change over time. Here, a dynamic strategy for calculating clinical trial success rate (ClinSR) is proposed, which identifies that: the ClinSR has been declining since the early 21st century, yet it hits a plateau and recently starts to increase; the ClinSR for repurposed drugs is unexpectedly lower than that for all drugs in recent years; and an extremely low ClinSR is found for anti-COVID-19 drugs. In-depth analysis reports great variations among the ClinSRs of various diseases, developmental strategies, and drug modalities. A platform ClinSR.org ( https://ClinSR.org/ ), is then developed to show how ClinSRs change over time. All in all, this work enables accurate, timely and continuous assessment of ClinSRs, for now and the future, to aid pharmaceutical and economic decision making.
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Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.