Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41162350›Full record

ArticleNature communications2025

Antarctic meltwater alters future projections of climate and sea level.

Shaina Sadai, Ambarish V Karmalkar, David Pollard, Yue Dong, Erica Lucas, Natalya Gomez, Robert DeConto, Alan Condron

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Shaina SadaiFive College Associate, Amherst, MA, USA. srogstad@umass.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6723-6531
Ambarish V KarmalkarDepartment of Geosciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2940-0417
David PollardDepartment of Earth, Geographic, and Climate Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2665-362X
Yue DongDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6404-3446
Erica LucasDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
Natalya GomezDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2463-7917
Robert DeContoDepartment of Earth, Geographic, and Climate Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2800-6466
Alan CondronDepartment of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA. acondron@whoi.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7337-1713

Funding

National Science Foundation (NSF) 1443347National Science Foundation (NSF) 1664013
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Imperfect understanding of ice sheet-climate interactions poses challenges for projecting the impacts of ice sheet mass loss on future climate and sea level. Here we couple a dynamic Antarctic ice sheet model and global climate model to simulate ice sheet-climate interactions. In our single-model, single-member modeling framework, we find sea level and climate projections are significantly modified from uncoupled simulations neglecting Antarctic meltwater under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. Antarctic meltwater yields surface air temperatures up to 1.5 °C higher in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, while broadly dampening temperature rise in the Southern Hemisphere. Due to radiative feedback changes, both emissions scenarios have global mean surface temperature warming ~0.3 °C lower in the coupled scenario than the control by 2100, with a maximum anomaly of ~1 °C at 2200 under RCP8.5. This slows Antarctica's contribution to global mean sea level rise. Total Antarctic sea level contributions under RCP8.5 (2100: ~0.3 m, 2200: >3 m) include substantial contributions from East Antarctica, though not under RCP4.5 (2100: ~0.1 m, 2200: >1 m). Regionally, projected sea level is up to 0.9 m higher in the Pacific than the global mean Antarctic contribution under RCP8.5 at 2200.

Identifiers

PMID41162350
PMCPMC12572293

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.