Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41158024›Full record

ArticleGlobal change biology2025

Divergent Trends in Insect Disturbance Across Europe's Temperate and Boreal Forests.

Tomáš Hlásny, Roman Modlinger, Jostein Gohli, Rupert Seidl, Paal Krokene, Iris Bernardinelli, Simon Blaser, Gediminas Brazaitis, Gailenė Brazaitytė, Eckehard G Brockerhoff and 29 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Global change biology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

39 authors.

Tomáš HlásnyFaculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague-Suchdol, Czech Republic.ORCID 0000-0001-9771-7435
Roman ModlingerFaculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague-Suchdol, Czech Republic.
Jostein GohliNorwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), Ås, Norway.
Rupert SeidlTUM School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-3338-3402
Paal KrokeneNorwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), Ås, Norway.
Iris BernardinelliRegional Plant Health Service - ERSA, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Italy.
Simon BlaserSwiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
Gediminas BrazaitisVytautas Magnus University Agricultural Academy, Kaunas County, Lithuania.
Gailenė BrazaitytėVytautas Magnus University Agricultural Academy, Kaunas County, Lithuania.
Eckehard G BrockerhoffSwiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-5962-3208
György CsókaForest Research Institute, University of Sopron, Mátrafüred, Hungary.
Laura DoborFaculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague-Suchdol, Czech Republic.ORCID 0000-0001-6712-9827
Maarten de GrootSlovenian Forestry Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia.ORCID 0000-0002-5721-6676
Mihai-Leonard DudumanForestry Faculty, Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, Suceava, Romania.
Massimo FaccoliDepartment of Agronomy, Food, Natural Resources, Animals and the Environment, University of Padua, Legnaro, PD, Italy.
Margarita GeorgievaForest Research Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria.
Georgi GeorgievForest Research Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria.
Wojciech GrodzkiForest Research Institute, Sękocin Stary, Raszyn, Poland.
Henrik HartmannInstitute for Forest Protection, Julius Kühn Institute (JKI) - Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants, Quedlinburg, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-9926-5484
Anikó HirkaForest Research Institute, University of Sopron, Mátrafüred, Hungary.
Gernot HochAustrian Research Centre for Forests - BFW, Vienna, Austria.
Tomasz JabłońskiForest Research Institute, Sękocin Stary, Raszyn, Poland.
Hervé JactelBiogeco, INRAE, University of Bordeaux, Cestas, France.
Mats JonsellDepartment of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Uppsala, Sweden.
Marija KolšekSlovenia Forest Service, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Markus MelinNatural Resources Institute Finland, Joensuu, Finland.ORCID 0000-0001-7290-9203
Slobodan MilanovićFaculty of Forestry, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.ORCID 0000-0002-8260-999X
Constantin NețoiuNational Institute for Research and Development in Forestry Marin "Drăcea", Voluntari, Romania.
Mats NiebergPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-9755-8814
Bjørn ØklandNorwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), Ås, Norway.
Milan PernekCroatian Forest Research Institute, Jastrebarsko, Croatia.
Michaela PerunováFaculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague-Suchdol, Czech Republic.
Nick SchafstallFaculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague-Suchdol, Czech Republic.
Martin SchroederDepartment of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Uppsala, Sweden.
Gottfried SteyrerAustrian Research Centre for Forests - BFW, Vienna, Austria.
Jozef VakulaDepartment of Forest Protection and Forest Protection Service, National Forest Centre, Banská Štiavnica, Slovakia.
Thomas WohlgemuthSwiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-4623-0894
Tiina YliojaNatural Resources Institute Finland, Helsinki, Finland.
Andrew M LiebholdFaculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague-Suchdol, Czech Republic.

Funding

European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program 101001905, FORWARDHorizon Europe Climate, Energy and Mobility (HIVE) 101187384National Agency for Agriculture Research of the Czech Republic QK23020039
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Ongoing shifts in climate and land use have altered interactions between trees and insect herbivores, changing biotic disturbance regimes. However, as these changes are complex and vary across host species, insect taxa, and feeding guilds, they remain poorly understood. We compiled annual records of forest insect disturbance from 15 countries in temperate and boreal Europe, spanning the period from 2000 to 2022. The dataset comprises 1361 time series characterizing the dynamics of 50 herbivorous insects. We used this dataset to test whether insect disturbance has systematically changed during the 23-year period across host trees and feeding guilds, whether it varies along latitudinal and climatic gradients, and whether synchrony exists among species in the same guild or among species sharing the same host. Since 2000, borer disturbance was predominantly concentrated on gymnosperms, while defoliators impacted gymnosperms and angiosperms more evenly. While 85.8% of gymnosperm disturbance was inflicted by a single species, Ips typographus, the majority of disturbances to angiosperms were caused by six different species. Borer impact on gymnosperms has increased in the 21st century, while defoliator impact has decreased across both clades. In contrast to diverging temporal trends, disturbance was consistently greater in warmer and drier conditions across feeding guilds and host types. We identified significant synchrony in insect disturbance within host types and feeding guilds but not between these groups, suggesting shared drivers within guilds and host types. Increasing insect disturbance to gymnosperms may catalyze adaptive transformations in Europe's forests, promoting a shift from historical conifer-dominated management to broadleaved trees, which are less affected by insect herbivores. Our findings reveal a diversity of trends in insect herbivory, underscoring the need to strengthen monitoring and research in order to better understand underlying mechanisms and identify emerging threats that may not be apparent in currently available data.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeForestsHerbivoryInsectaAnimalsEuropeTreesclimate changeecosystem adaptationforest disturbanceforest insect herbivoreshost tree typesinsect feeding guilds

Identifiers

PMID41158024
PMCPMC12569566

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.