Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41152808›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2025

Trend dynamics of mumps prevalence among children aged 1-9 years in Changzhou, 2005-2023: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis.

Dan Wu, Changlei Han, Suting Xiong, Shufan Wu, Peipei Zhang, Han Gao, Cheng Tian, Junhong Li, Xin Dong, Xufeng Lv and 1 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Dan Wu *Changzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou, 213022, China.
Changlei Han *Changzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou, 213022, China.
Suting Xiong *Changzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou, 213022, China.
Shufan WuChangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou, 213022, China.
Peipei ZhangChangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou, 213022, China.
Han GaoChangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou, 213022, China.
Cheng TianChangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou, 213022, China.
Junhong LiChangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou, 213022, China.
Xin DongChangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou, 213022, China.
Xufeng LvChangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou, 213022, China. czcdc@163.com.
Qinwen XuCenter for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhonglou District, 99 Chahua Road, Changzhou, 213016, China. xqw168@126.com.

Funding

Changzhou health green seedling talent plan and Changzhou science and technology Foundation CJ20220237Changzhou Medical Young Talent Science and Technology Project Lcyx2024006Changzhou Science and Technology Foundation CJ20245050Open Research Fund Program of Changzhou Institute for Advanced Study of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University CPHN202301Young Talent Project CZQM2023026
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDespite the inclusion of one dose of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination in the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), mumps cases and outbreaks continue to occur. The objective of this study is to explore the epidemiologic pattern of mumps in Changzhou from 2005 to 2023 and to predict the future trend of mumps.

methodsA Joinpoint regression model was employed to ascertain the temporal trends in mumps prevalence. To interpret the age, period, and cohort effects on mumps prevalence, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was employed. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were utilized to project the future prevalence rate from 2024 to 2033.

resultsOne join-point was identified, with an upward trend from 2005 to 2012 (APC = 13.880) and a downward trend from 2012 to 2023 (APC = -8.262). The peak age-specific prevalence rate occurred at five to six years of age. From 2011 to 2013, the prevalence of mumps was found to be significantly elevated. In the cohort born between 2005 and 2010, the risk of mumps remained stable, while Subsequent birth cohorts exhibited fluctuating and increasing trends. The BAPC model predicted a gradual decline in prevalence rate over the next 10 years with the two-dose MMR vaccine.

conclusionsThe age-specific prevalence rate of mumps among children aged 1-9 years in Changzhou has not declined significantly, and the efficacy of the single-dose MMR vaccine is limited. This necessitates the timely optimization of the immunization strategy.

Indexed as

MumpsChildChild, PreschoolChinaCohort StudiesFemaleHumansInfantMaleMeasles-Mumps-Rubella VaccinePrevalenceRegression AnalysisMeasles-Mumps-Rubella VaccineAge-period-cohort analysisBAPC modelEpidemiologyJoinpoint regressionMumps

Identifiers

PMID41152808
PMCPMC12560430

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.