Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41152637›Full record

ArticleNature neuroscience2025

Falling asleep follows a predictable bifurcation dynamic.

Junheng Li, Anastasia Ilina, Robert Peach, Tianyu Wei, Edward Rhodes, Valeria Jaramillo, Ines R Violante, Mauricio Barahona, Derk-Jan Dijk, Nir Grossman

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature neuroscience, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Guideline
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Junheng LiDepartment of Brain Sciences, Imperial College London, London, UK. junheng.li17@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6210-5997
Anastasia IlinaDepartment of Brain Sciences, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Robert PeachDepartment of Brain Sciences, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8738-5825
Tianyu WeiDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Edward RhodesDepartment of Brain Sciences, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5137-6313
Valeria JaramilloSchool of Psychology, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK.
Ines R ViolanteSchool of Psychology, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK.
Mauricio BarahonaDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1089-5675
Derk-Jan DijkSurrey Sleep Research Centre, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5314-1008
Nir GrossmanDepartment of Brain Sciences, Imperial College London, London, UK. nirg@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2002-9049

Funding

Institute for Clinical and Translational ResearchUL1TR001079 · NCATS · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI FORD, DANIEL ERNEST · 2013 to 2017
$60.1M
Wake Forest Clinical and Translational Science AwardUL1TR001420 · NCATS · WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI ARD, JAMY D, FOLEY, KRISTIE L · 2015 to 2023
$32.3M
Clinical and Translational Science AwardUL1TR000040 · NCATS · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI GINSBERG, HENRY N · 2012 to 2015
$26.2M
ASSOCIATION OF SLEEP DISORDERS WITH CARDIOVASCULAR HEALTH ACROSS ETHNIC GROUPSR01HL098433 · NHLBI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI REDLINE, SUSAN S. · 2010 to 2015
$8.2M
National Sleep Research Resource (NSRR)R24HL114473 · NHLBI · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · PI REDLINE, SUSAN S., ZHANG, GUO-QIANG · 2013 to 2017
$7.5M
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDYN01HC095166 · HC · UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT &ST AGRIC COLLEGE · PI TRACY, RUSSELL P · 1999 to 2001
$758k
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDY-FIELD CENTERN01HC095162 · HC · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI SZKLO, MOYSES A · 1999 to 2000
$694k
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDY--FIELD CENTERN01HC095161 · HC · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI SHEA, STEVEN · 1999 to 2001
$642k
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDY--FIELD CENTERN01HC095165 · HC · WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY · PI BURKE, GREGORY L · 1999 to 2001
$616k
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDY--FIELD CENTERN01HC095160 · HC · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI SAAD, MOHAMMED F · 1999 to 2001
$592k
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDY-FIELD CENTERN01HC095164 · HC · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY · PI LIU, KIANG JOHN · 1999 to 2001
$511k
SUBCLINICAL CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE STUDY--FIELD CENTERN01HC095163 · HC · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA TWIN CITIES · PI FOLSOM, AARON R · 1999 to 2001
$443k
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation) Project-ID 424778381, TRR 295DH | National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) NIHR 203316NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000040NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001079NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001420NHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201500003CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201500003INHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095159NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095160NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095161NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095162NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095163NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095164NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095165NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095166NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095167NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095168NHLBI NIH HHS N01 HC095169NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL098433NHLBI NIH HHS R24 HL114473RCUK | Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) BB/S008314/1RCUK | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) EP/N014529/1RCUK | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) EP/W024020/1Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation) P2EZP3_199918Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (Swiss National Science Foundation) P500PB_217827Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust (Wellcome) 301007/Z/23/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Sleep is a fundamental part of our lives; yet, how our brain falls asleep remains one of the most enduring mysteries of neuroscience. Here we report a new conceptual framework to analyze and model this phenomenon. The framework represents the changes in brain electroencephalogram activity during the transition into sleep as a trajectory in a normalized feature space. We use the framework to show that the brain's wake-to-sleep transition follows bifurcation dynamics with a distinct tipping point preceded by a critical slowing down. We validate the bifurcation dynamics in two independent datasets, which include more than 1,000 human participants. Finally, we demonstrate the framework's utility by predicting a person's progression into sleep in real time with seconds temporal resolution and over 0.95 average accuracy.

Indexed as

BrainSleepSleep StagesWakefulnessAdultElectroencephalographyFemaleHumansMaleModels, NeurologicalYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID41152637
PMCPMC12672367

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.