Setting a Comprehensive Bow-Tie Framework for Disaster Risk Analysis of Mine Tailings Storage Facilities.

Disasters caused by tailings storage facilities (TSFs) have highlighted the complexity of safely managing mine tailings and the extension of consequences over time and throughout the tailings runoff. Investigations commissioned by mining companies following major failures in Mariana and Brumadinho, Brazil, primarily focused on immediate technical causes and hazards. However, for effective disaster risk reduction, the integration of technical, environmental, and social factors is needed to comprehensively address the complexity of risk management. Bow-tie models can be used for TSF's disaster analysis, as they consider causes, consequences, and preventive and mitigation controls. Here, an adapted bow-tie framework for TSF's disaster risk analysis is proposed to systematize the identification of threats and consequences and address the four disaster risk dimensions: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and capacity. The framework was applied to the Pontal TSF, Brazil, using publicly available information, revealing gaps in the risk management, such as the lack of identification of social vulnerabilities. Our framework highlights the importance of reducing TSF's disaster risks through all dimensions and engaging multiple stakeholders. Although TSF stability control is primordial and irreplaceable, alone it is insufficient for effective disaster risk reduction.